NCAAF: Mountain West Preview

Overview

You have to feel a little bad for the Mountain West. They came painfully close to receiving an automatic bid to a BCS game, and for more reasons than one, they probably won't get it. In fact, in a few years, if the conference re-alignment plays out the way experts predict it will, the Mountain West may cease to exist as a conference. Utah is leaving for the Pac-10, BYU may opt out and become an independent, and Boise State can still opt out of their agreement if they feel like it is no longer in their best interest to join the conference. In other words, in one year, this conference may go from an almost power to a watered down coalition of teams with no real history or chance of reviving the conference. My message to TCU: Find an exit. Quickly.

Team(s) With the Best Shot at a National Championship Bid
None

TCU is going to need a lot of help from other teams in order to have a shot at a national title bid. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs, they don't come in as the highest ranked non-power conference team in the nation, which puts them at a severe disadvantage. I don't think that help is going to come, so TCU is going to be on the outside looking in again if they go undefeated. I'll say it again: TCU, find an exit. Quickly.

Watch Out! (Team That Could Surprise)
Wyoming

They surprised people at the beginning of last year's bowl season by beating Fresno State in a thriller. This year, they have the ability to surprise people again. Sophomore quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels has a year of experience under his belt, and that will serve the Cowboy offense well, which needs to become more efficient if they want to improve upon last year. Wyoming has their toughest games on the road, but that's why I think they could surprise people.

Out-Of-Conference Game To Watch
TCU vs. Oregon State (September 4th)

There is no doubt that this game will be TCU's toughest non-conference game of the year. If they win, then they are still in the conversation for a BCS bid. If they lose, then their number one goal will be winning the Mountain West for a chance to play in the Poinsettia Bowl. In other words, the first game of the season may be their most important in the eyes of the pollsters.

In-Conference Game To Watch
TCU vs. Utah (November 6th)

Sure, there is a chance that BYU may not miss a beat in replacing quarterback Max Hall, but chances are that TCU and Utah will be the class of the Mountain West. This game will likely be for the Mountain West title, and one or both teams could be playing for more than that. Either way, this game has become a staple of the Mountain West Conference, and it's kind of sad to think that it will be the last time these teams face each other as conference foes. Well, maybe (hint, hint...).

Conference Predictions

1. TCU (12-0, [8-0])
2. Utah (9-3, [6-2])
3. BYU (9-3, [6-2])
4. Air Force (7-5, [5-3])
5. Wyoming (6-6, [4-4])
6. San Diego State (6-6, [3-5])
7. UNLV (2-11, [2-6])
8. Colorado State (2-10, [1-7])
9. New Mexico (1-11, [0-8])



- K. Becks

Okay, I Guess I Understand, But...

Utah leaving the Mountain West Conference on Thursday for the Pac-10 makes me scratch my head a little bit. They are leaving a conference where they and Boise State would have been the class of a very respectable football lineup, which also features TCU and BYU. I understand that the Pac-10 has the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl, but with all the conference swapping and uncertainty, things could change quickly. I still believe that this conference swapping will lead to the institution of a college football playoff, which would make having an automatic bid to a BCS bowl meaningless. Also, with the lineup that the Mountain West would have had, I think that they would have been given an automatic bid in a playoff. Also, the top of the Mountain West is much more stable and predictable year in and year out than the Pac-10. Every year, you can count on Boise State, TCU, and BYU to put together a competitive team. In the Pac-10, USC and Oregon are really the only teams that have been good most years during the past decade. In fact, here is a stat that backs up this claim: the Mountain West Conference's record against the Pac-10 in bowl games in the last ten years? Try 6-5. What I'm saying is that I understand why Utah moved to the Pac-10. The automatic bid is there, and the Pac-10 gets more respect from the media than the Mountain West. However, it's instant gratification, because in a few years, there won't be any more automatic bids to BCS bowl games. With Utah, the Mountain West would have been better than the Pac-10, and might have even secured an automatic bid to a BCS bowl game while automatic bids are still around. Now, all we have are two conferences that both need another good team to legitimize their claim as a true elite football conference.

I think that Boston's Glen Davis needs to give up the nickname "Big Baby" so that the man who truly deserves the name can have it. That man would be Washington Redskins defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth. Haynesworth, who signed the biggest contract ever by a defensive player last year, decided not to show up to the team's mandatory minicamp this week because he is unhappy with the Redskins instituting a 3-4 defense. His teammates are right; he is being completely selfish here. Not only has he decided not to show up to practice, but he has also reportedly demanded a trade out of Washington. Well, Albert, your ticket out of Washington would be giving back the one-hundred million dollar contract that you signed last year. Considering his selfishness, he won't do it, and will likely come back to the Redskins stomping his feet like a little kid whose mom didn't buy him a candy bar at the store. Albert, while you're making a stink about the defense you'll have to play in, consider this: Mike Shanahan has a Super Bowl Ring, and you don't. Maybe you should just do what he says, and you'll have a chance of getting one too.

Today at the U.S. Open, both Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson failed to make even one birdie. That's not exactly a way to attract the attention of the casual golf fan, but on the bright side, Tiger is only five shots off the lead. Considering the difficulty of the course, and the fact that Tiger had a very mediocre first round, I wouldn't be surprised if Tiger is right in the thick of things as we head into the weekend. Maybe, just maybe, he can save the U.S. Open after all.

Tomorrow morning's soccer match between the United States and Slovenia will determine whether or not the majority of the United States will continue to follow the World Cup. A tie is not enough, and the U.S. already received their gift. Hopefully Clint Dempsey & Co. can pull through, because I don't want to be the only person left still wanting to talk about the World Cup.



- K. Becks

It's A Techtonic Shift

We are amidst a major change in the landscape of college athletics; namely, college football. With Colorado bolting for the Pac-10, Boise State moving to the Mountain West, and Nebraska moving to the Big 10, the domino effect has been triggered. When all is said and done, I predict that we will have a collection of "super" conferences that will dominate the politics in college football. By politics, I mean the steps that will go in place to institute some type of playoff that, believe it or not, the college presidents have wanted for a long time.

Here is what I think will happen (and obviously, by the middle of next week we will know if I am correct or not, as many more changes are on their way in the near future). Joining Nebraska in the Big 10 will be Missouri. Not only does this make sense geographically, but Missouri already has a longstanding rivalry in place with Illinois, and it would compliment their schedule to become a part of the Big 10. Next, Texas will leave the Big 12 high and dry, as they, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State will join the Pac-10. This will give the Pac-10 a total of 16 teams, completing what will be our first "super" conference. This also leaves the Big 12 limping to the barn with four teams, obviously not enough to be a full conference. This will prompt the remaining teams (Kansas, Iowa State, Baylor, and Kansas State) to combine with the Mountain West Conference, who are actually a very respectable conference with BYU, Utah, TCU, and Boise State. The Big 10 will still be at twelve teams by the end of next week, but will be hungry to expand their conference to sixteen as the Pac-10 will have done.

That is what I believe will happen by the end of next week. The next section is pure speculation; or rather, what I think will be done to ensure that a playoff can be achieved.

Since the Pac-10 has sixteen teams, the other "power" football conferences, the Big 10 and SEC, will try to follow suit. It makes sense for the SEC to take Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech. This will complete our second "super" conference. The third "super" conference will come as a result of a mass merger between the remaining eight teams in the ACC and the eight teams in the Big East. For those clever readers out there, I know what you're thinking: "What about basketball? You can't have a 24 team conference." Number one, basketball isn't the major revenue generator for a university. Number two, yes you can. Make two divisions. Eight teams from each division qualify for the conference tournament, and BOOM, you have the same setup you had before the merger.

Now that just leaves one more conference. The Big 10, having run out of opportunities to further expand, only have one possible team left that they can attempt to add. That would be Notre Dame. Notre Dame, seeing the "super" conference picture almost complete, will realize that without joining a conference, it will be close to impossible to get into the playoff system that will soon be devised. The Fighting Irish let go of their beloved independence and their NBC contract, and join the Big 10. This gives the Big 10 thirteen teams, three short of the sixteen that all the other "super" conferences have. However, it won't matter, because now the power is in the college presidents' hands to institute a playoff.

Let's take a look at what we have so far.

Pac-10- 16 teams
SEC- 16 teams
Mountain West- 16 teams
ACC/Big East (which name is kept is unimportant)- 16 teams
Big 10- 13 teams

Now, you can have an eight team playoff by doing the following. Take the conference champion from each of the aforementioned "super" conferences, as well as one team from one of the smaller conferences (MAC, Conference USA, Sun Belt, WAC) or an independent team that is the highest ranked. The final two spots will go to the highest ranked teams that have not already qualified for the playoff.

What will this do? Well, not only will it solve the problem of not having a college football playoff, but it is a goldmine (no pun intended) from a money making perspective, which is what the college presidents are most interested in. Not only that, but every bowl game can be preserved. The two teams in the playoff finals will play for the national championship, and the six remaining teams will go to the other three BCS bowl games. Notice that I called them BCS bowl games. Yes, for ranking purposes, the BCS will still be around. However, since it will no longer choose the two teams that play for the national championship, it won't be hated. As for the rest of the smaller bowl games, they will be played as usual.

As I said, only the second paragraph is what will likely happen. The rest of the post is pure speculation. However, this should generate a lot of conversation, and I'm excited to hear all your thoughts on the topic. Post a comment in the comments section, or send me an email at aroundthecornsportsblog@gmail.com. I'd really like to hear what you guys think about this issue. Thanks everyone, and be sure to check out the new World Cup scoreboard on the left side of the page.



- K. Becks