Since the tournament bracket is already out, it makes absolutely no sense for me to continue analyzing small and mid-major conference teams the way I had been previously doing. However, I still want to cover them. In order to do this, I'm going to refrain from covering conferences like the MAC, Conference USA, Atlantic-10, and Mountain West conferences (which can all argue they're not even mid-major conferences anyway). Also, in this entry I will be doing a very quick overview of the teams, without much analysis.
Southwestern Athletic
Teams in: Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Seed: Play-in Game
First Round Opponent: Winthrop
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Very Unlikely
Even if the Golden Lions beat Winthrop Tuesday night (which I do not think they will do), they would have to face Duke in the official First Round. Welcome to the NCAA tournament, gentlemen.
Patriot
Teams in: Lehigh
Seed: 16
First Round Opponent: Kansas
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Very Unlikely
Next...
Mid-Eastern
Teams in: Morgan State
Seed: 15
First Round Opponent: West Virginia
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Very Unlikely
Morgan State is a team that likes to speed up the tempo of the game and take lots of shots. Usually, a fifteen seed needs to slow down the pace to keep the game close. I don't see Morgan State having much success against the Mountaineers.
Western Athletic
Teams in: New Mexico State, Utah State
Seed: 12 (both)
First Round Opponent: Michigan State (NMSU), Texas A&M (Utah State)
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Decent (both)
Due to the fact that I don't think Michigan State has been playing well as of late, I am labeling New Mexico State with a "decent" status to be a Cinderella. I was very impressed with the way that they played in the WAC Championship game. As for Utah State, I have been impressed with them throughout the year, but moved them down from "good" to "decent" status for being a Cinderella because of their performance in the conference tournament final. We could see both teams in the Second Round.
Southland
Teams in: Sam Houston State
Seed: 14
First Round Opponent: Baylor
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Very Unlikely
Like many other teams in the tournament, they should enjoy and relish the experience of playing in an NCAA tournament game. Baylor is just too strong for the Bearkats.
Big West
Teams in: UC-Santa Barbara
Seed: 15
First Round Opponent: Ohio State
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Very Unlikely
The Gauchos are not a bad team. They have the Big West player of the year in forward Orlando Johnson. However, when you're going up against potential National Player of the Year Evan Turner, you are going to have your hands full no matter who you have on your side.
America East
Teams in: Vermont
Seed: 16
First Round Opponent: Syracuse
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Very Unlikely
Remember the last time Vermont was in the Big Dance? How about 2005, when as a thirteen seed they upset Syracuse in a dramatic game that went into overtime. It will be much harder to repeat such an effort as a sixteen seed, but you never know...
As I said, this was a very quick overview of each team. In the next few days as we get closer to the first day of competition, I will be covering the NCAA Tournament more in-depth, including a look at potential upsets, teams that can make a run, and my entire bracket for the 2010 NCAA Tournament. This is my favorite week of the year, and I can't think of any other way to celebrate it than to write about it! No, I'm just kidding. I'm really just excited about not paying attention in class on Thursday and Friday.
- K. Becks
Showing posts with label conference tournament. Show all posts
Showing posts with label conference tournament. Show all posts
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Monday, March 8, 2010
These Are The Little Guys, Right?
Tomorrow marks the start of the so called "major" conference tournaments, with the Big East kicking off play at noon. The start of the bigger conference tournaments often overshadows the smaller ones, but don't worry; I'll continue to cover the little guys up until Selection Sunday.
The last few conference championship games have been very interesting. I was starting to wonder if these games were going to produce some teams that we wouldn't have expected to be dancing (hello, Fairfield and William & Mary). However, for the most part we got what we expected.
Missouri Valley
Automatic Bid: Northern Iowa
Projected Seed: Anywhere from 5 to 7
Probability of Being a Cinderella: N/A
This team has more or less been on college basketball fans' radars for the entire season. That is why I don't even consider them an upset special, lest they make it to the Final Four. Still, this team may take some casual fans by surprise, as they are not a household name. In addition to having a stifling defense, they sport a slow-paced, tempo-controlling offense that will (in the words of Peter Griffin) grind your gears. They may not be the most entertaining team to watch, but they know how to win. Expect the Panthers to do just that in about two weeks.
Colonial
Automatic Bid: Old Dominion
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Decent
The Monarchs were the best team all year long in what is usually a pretty decent conference (remember George Mason and VCU, anyone?). In addition to having knocked off Georgetown earlier in the year, they stayed close in their losses against Richmond, Missouri, and Northern Iowa (all likely tourney-bound teams). Keep an eye on Old Dominion in their first round matchup, because they will likely keep it close no matter who they play.
Metro Atlantic
Automatic Bid: Siena
Projected Seed: 12
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Decent
For the third time in as many years, the Saints are the representatives from the MAAC. After upsetting Ohio State last year and Vanderbilt the year before, no one will be taking these guys lightly heading into the tournament. Although they don't really have any marquee wins to hang their hats on to suggest they are capable of upsetting the big boys, the Saints have experience. Led by seniors Ryan Franklin, Edwin Ubiles, and junior Ryan Rossiter, Siena has a core set of players that know what it's like to play in an NCAA tournament game. With that being said, do not count the Saints out to send someone packing early yet again.
- K. Becks
The last few conference championship games have been very interesting. I was starting to wonder if these games were going to produce some teams that we wouldn't have expected to be dancing (hello, Fairfield and William & Mary). However, for the most part we got what we expected.
Missouri Valley
Automatic Bid: Northern Iowa
Projected Seed: Anywhere from 5 to 7
Probability of Being a Cinderella: N/A
This team has more or less been on college basketball fans' radars for the entire season. That is why I don't even consider them an upset special, lest they make it to the Final Four. Still, this team may take some casual fans by surprise, as they are not a household name. In addition to having a stifling defense, they sport a slow-paced, tempo-controlling offense that will (in the words of Peter Griffin) grind your gears. They may not be the most entertaining team to watch, but they know how to win. Expect the Panthers to do just that in about two weeks.
Colonial
Automatic Bid: Old Dominion
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Decent
The Monarchs were the best team all year long in what is usually a pretty decent conference (remember George Mason and VCU, anyone?). In addition to having knocked off Georgetown earlier in the year, they stayed close in their losses against Richmond, Missouri, and Northern Iowa (all likely tourney-bound teams). Keep an eye on Old Dominion in their first round matchup, because they will likely keep it close no matter who they play.
Metro Atlantic
Automatic Bid: Siena
Projected Seed: 12
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Decent
For the third time in as many years, the Saints are the representatives from the MAAC. After upsetting Ohio State last year and Vanderbilt the year before, no one will be taking these guys lightly heading into the tournament. Although they don't really have any marquee wins to hang their hats on to suggest they are capable of upsetting the big boys, the Saints have experience. Led by seniors Ryan Franklin, Edwin Ubiles, and junior Ryan Rossiter, Siena has a core set of players that know what it's like to play in an NCAA tournament game. With that being said, do not count the Saints out to send someone packing early yet again.
- K. Becks
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Just Getting Started
As I returned Friday night from my vacation in Chicago, I knew that I wouldn't have much time to rest. Conference tournament time is upon us, and Saturday presented us with three more automatic bids to join Cornell as teams that punched their ticket to the Big Dance (Cornell won their league on Friday, and the Ivy League regular season champion receives the automatic bid to the tournament).
As I watched the conference tournament finals on TV today, I thought about what seeds these teams will earn, as well as the chances they have of upsetting a higher seed in the NCAA tournament. In my next few entries, I will share with you my thoughts on these topics. I will try to predict which seed these small and mid-major conference teams will get, their likelihood of being a Cinderella, and whether or not any other teams from their respective conferences will make the Dance as well.
Ivy League
Automatic Bid: Cornell
Projected Seed: 12, possibly an 11
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Good
This team has the capability of beating the best teams in the nation (as we saw in their close game against Kansas earlier this season). They are a good three point shooting team, which allows them to score at will. The problem with this team will be setting the pace; if they let the opposing team dictate the pace of the game, then the Big Red are in trouble. If this team shoots the ball well during the tournament, don't be surprised to see them upset someone in the first round, and possibly make it to the Sweet 16.
Big South
Automatic Bid: Winthrop
Projected Seed: 15 or 16
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Unlikely
Winthrop has been a dangerous team in the NCAA tournament before. In their last appearance (in 2008), they upset Notre Dame as a 13 seed. In 2006, they were two seconds away from upsetting Tennessee as a 15 seed. However, those years the Eagles were the best team in their conference all year long. This year, they were not. If they can keep the score low, then they have a chance to upset a top seeded team. However, most top seeded teams are going to score more than 60 points a game, which is what Winthrop will try to limit the opposition to if they want a chance to win.
Atlantic Sun
Automatic Bid: East Tennessee State
Projected Seed: 16
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Very Unlikely
No 16 seed has ever beaten a number 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Of course, ETSU has not officially been given a 16 seed, but since that is my prediction, I am also predicting that they will not win their game. Much like Winthrop, ETSU were underdogs to win their conference tournament (they were a 5 seed). That being said, the Buccaneers should take in the experience and be happy to be playing the in NCAA tournament.
Ohio Valley
Automatic Bid: Murray State
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Decent
This team will scare whoever is unlucky enough to draw them in the first round. The Racers are an extremely unselfish team (5 players average double-digits in scoring), which will make it hard for whomever is playing them to prepare to stop their offensive attack. If the Racers can spread the scoring load out among multiple players as they have done all season, then they will be a nightmare for teams to face.
I will be doing something similar to this for the other small and mid-major conferences as the automatic bids continue to pour in this week. Although I will not be doing this for the larger conferences, I will still mention top stories concerning them.
- K. Becks
As I watched the conference tournament finals on TV today, I thought about what seeds these teams will earn, as well as the chances they have of upsetting a higher seed in the NCAA tournament. In my next few entries, I will share with you my thoughts on these topics. I will try to predict which seed these small and mid-major conference teams will get, their likelihood of being a Cinderella, and whether or not any other teams from their respective conferences will make the Dance as well.
Ivy League
Automatic Bid: Cornell
Projected Seed: 12, possibly an 11
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Good
This team has the capability of beating the best teams in the nation (as we saw in their close game against Kansas earlier this season). They are a good three point shooting team, which allows them to score at will. The problem with this team will be setting the pace; if they let the opposing team dictate the pace of the game, then the Big Red are in trouble. If this team shoots the ball well during the tournament, don't be surprised to see them upset someone in the first round, and possibly make it to the Sweet 16.
Big South
Automatic Bid: Winthrop
Projected Seed: 15 or 16
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Unlikely
Winthrop has been a dangerous team in the NCAA tournament before. In their last appearance (in 2008), they upset Notre Dame as a 13 seed. In 2006, they were two seconds away from upsetting Tennessee as a 15 seed. However, those years the Eagles were the best team in their conference all year long. This year, they were not. If they can keep the score low, then they have a chance to upset a top seeded team. However, most top seeded teams are going to score more than 60 points a game, which is what Winthrop will try to limit the opposition to if they want a chance to win.
Atlantic Sun
Automatic Bid: East Tennessee State
Projected Seed: 16
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Very Unlikely
No 16 seed has ever beaten a number 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Of course, ETSU has not officially been given a 16 seed, but since that is my prediction, I am also predicting that they will not win their game. Much like Winthrop, ETSU were underdogs to win their conference tournament (they were a 5 seed). That being said, the Buccaneers should take in the experience and be happy to be playing the in NCAA tournament.
Ohio Valley
Automatic Bid: Murray State
Projected Seed: 12 or 13
Probability of Being a Cinderella: Decent
This team will scare whoever is unlucky enough to draw them in the first round. The Racers are an extremely unselfish team (5 players average double-digits in scoring), which will make it hard for whomever is playing them to prepare to stop their offensive attack. If the Racers can spread the scoring load out among multiple players as they have done all season, then they will be a nightmare for teams to face.
I will be doing something similar to this for the other small and mid-major conferences as the automatic bids continue to pour in this week. Although I will not be doing this for the larger conferences, I will still mention top stories concerning them.
- K. Becks
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