NCAAF Week 13 Weekend Preview

Hopefully you've gorged yourselves on good food today, because you're going to want an excuse not to get off the couch starting tomorrow afternoon. It's an uncommon occurence that some of the most important college football games of the week will be taking place on a Friday. That's right; Oregon, Auburn, and Boise State (or, numbers one, two, and four in the BCS rankings) will all be taking to the field on Black Friday. Not only are the teams playing, but they are up against some potentially dangerous teams, making the games all the more interesting. By the time Saturday rolls around, we may already have chaos on our hands depending on how these teams fare tomorrow.

5 Games to Pay Attention To

West Virginia at Pittsburgh (Friday, 12 PM EST)

Not surprisingly, the Backyard Brawl will be crucial in deciding the winner of the Big East Conference. Currently, Pitt holds the lead at 4-1 in the conference, but if West Virginia is able to beat the Panthers, then both teams will sit at 4-2 with one game left (West Virginia, by way of head-to-head competition, would be placed ahead of Pitt in the standings. However, if West Virginia wins, they would have to hope for a UConn loss in order to win the conference). This year's installment of the Backyard Brawl will likely come down to who is better prepared on defense. Neither team has an overly explosive offense (West Virginia averages 363.6 yards per game on offense, compared with Pitt's 362.1), which will make every opportunity to score important for both teams. Both defenses will have to key on the opposing team's running game; for Pitt, the job will be stopping Noel Devine, and West Virginia will look to contain Dion Lewis. Due to Devine's issues this year because of injuries, I believe Pitt holds the upper hand in this one.

My Prediction: 24-17 Pitt


#2 Auburn at #9 Alabama (Friday, 2:30 PM EST)

This is possibly the most anticipated game of the year, let alone this weekend. Alabama, despite having suffered two losses, is still a slight favorite against the visiting Tigers. It is no secret that the Crimson Tide will be looking to stop Cam Newton and his duel threat abilities. Many times this season, Auburn has been in tight games with teams entering halftime, only to blow the game wide open in the second half on the way to somewhat comfortable victories. However, that probably won't be the case against Alabama. Although the Crimson Tide defense may not be as dominant and unbeatable as once thought, they still have the ability to shut down players like Newton. Alabama has the chance to play spoiler here, and there is reason to believe that they have something at stake too. If the Crimson Tide can pull out a win, they still may have a shot at receiving a BCS bowl bid. By late afternoon tomorrow, I believe that the result of this game will have the college football world in as chaotic a state as that of the malls tomorrow morning.

My Pick: 33-30 Alabama


#20 Arizona at #1 Oregon (Friday, 7 PM EST)

A few weeks ago, I predicted that the Oregon vs. California game would be a lot closer than many people expected, because Cal has the tendency to play well on a hit or miss basis. While my prediction proved to be correct, there may have been more than just "blind luck" behind their close game with the Ducks. Cal has the second best defense in the Pac-10, behind Oregon, and was able to hold the Ducks to their lowest point total of the season by twenty seven points. Arizona has the third best defense in the Pac-10, giving up just 3.3 more yards per game than Cal. Unlike Cal, Arizona has an offense capable of scoring with about as much ease as Oregon does. If it weren't for Cal's inability to move the ball late in the game, they may have been able to beat Oregon. Thanks to Nick Foles and the rest of the Wildcat offense, Arizona may be able to close the deal that their defense creates.

My Pick: 28-23 Arizona


#3 Boise State at #19 Nevada (Friday, 10:15 PM EST)

This is, hands down, the best WAC game of the season. Boise State has a great opportunity to make a good final impression with the voters by beating a solid Nevada team. For the last few years, the Wolfpack have been the toughest test in the WAC for the Broncos, with the 2007 game being decided in the 4th overtime, and the 2008 game being decided on the final play of regulation. Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick has yet to beat the Broncos in his career, but he is the main reason why Boise State has had so much trouble with Nevada the past three years. Kaepernick will have to play the game of his life in order to beat the Broncos tomorrow night, but don't put it past the fifth year senior. He has come within a play of knocking off Boise State, and he would love nothing better than to spoil the Broncos national title hopes in front of his home crowd. This is probably the biggest game of Kellen Moore's as well. He will know going into the game how the top two teams in the nation fared earlier in the day, which could be added pressure for the spectacular junior quarterback. Expect an exciting, high scoring affair in this one, with the play of the quarterbacks likely being the difference maker.

My Pick: 49-41 Boise State


#11 Michigan State at Penn State (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

This game could ultimately decide whether or not the Big Ten championship is shared by three teams or two. It is far less likely that Wisconsin will lose at home to Northwestern, or that Ohio State will lose at home to Michigan, but Penn State is a potential trap game for Michigan State. This year, Michigan State has drifted away from the usual Dantonio game plan that relies heavily on the run, and instead leans on Kirk Cousins to move the ball with a short passing attack. The Nittany Lions, however, have a defense capable of stopping that type of offense. They are second in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State, in pass defense, giving up just 189.7 yards per game through the air. If the Nittany Lions can stop Cousins and find ways to score themselves, then they could spoil what has been as close to a dream season as possible for the Spartans. Considering the way Michigan State has found ways to win games this year, I would not be surprised if this game ended up being decided in overtime.

My Pick: 35-34 Michigan State


5 More to Flip To

Michigan at Ohio State (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

Ohio State fans probably hope that Rich Rod will stay in Ann Arbor forever. Or, at least, that the Wolverines continue to have one of the worst defenses in college football.

Florida at #22 Florida State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

The Seminoles haven't beaten the Gators since three years before Tim Tebow arrived in Gainesville. This year is a great chance for the Seminoles to get a win against their rivals.

#6 LSU at #12 Arkansas (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

This is arguably one of the five biggest games of the weekend. If things work out right, LSU may not play for the SEC championship, yet be in position to play for the National Championship. And there are still people out there that support the current system...

Oregon State at #7 Stanford (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)

If Arizona doesn't beat Oregon, then the Beavers are the last line of defense for those in favor of parody. How they look against Stanford could be an indicator of how much of a shot they have against Oregon next weekend.

#14 Oklahoma at #10 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

This game decides the Big 12 South representative in the Big 12 Championship game. Again, arguably one of the top five games this weekend, but there aren't really any national title implications in this one.


Storylines for the Weekend

Gee-Whiz

On Wednesday, Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee told ESPN that teams like Boise State and TCU don't deserve to play for the national championship. Well, President Gee, whether you think they deserve it or not, they may be in the driver's seat for a title bid after this weekend. If things go the way I think they will, then the only two undefeated teams left in the nation will be the Broncos and the Horned Frogs. Gee may have a point; in most years, Boise State and TCU probably don't have a team capable of being one of the best in the nation. However, that doesn't give anyone the right to cast them aside when they do have a team talented enough to beat anyone they play. Also, since when did being President of Vanderbilt (a.k.a. Perennial Bottom Feeder of the SEC) give you the authority to comment on "running the gantlet" in that conference?

"It's dawg eat dawg, down heyre for au Bowyz"

After this weekend, we could have a situation in the SEC that is something like this: Auburn, currently the team with the best shot at a national championship, loses to Alabama is and thus out of the race. LSU, the team who would become the highest ranked SEC team in the BCS rankings, doesn't get a chance to play for the SEC Championship because they lost to Auburn earlier in the season, and is thus second in the SEC East. Alabama, the only team of the three with multiple losses, could still end up being arguably the best team of the three. This potential scenario would prove that the SEC beats each other up, and teams in the conference knock each other out of a chance to play for the national championship. Meanwhile, a team from a "lesser" conference waltzes in by playing seemingly easier competition. If this were to happen, you can bet Boise State and TCU wouldn't be the only teams voicing their support of a playoff.

Defense Wins Championships

I think that we will truly get to find out if Oregon is for real or not. Up to this point, they have really only played one team that has had a defense that the Little Sisters of the Poor (man, I'm really ripping on Gee's comments) wouldn't be able to score on; California. Cal was able to stop Oregon, and you can be sure that Arizona has the tape of that game, and has identified what Cal did to stop the Ducks offense. I think that tomorrow evening, the entire country will realize what I have suspected is the case for most of the season. The Pac-10 just doesn't have that many teams that can play good defense, and when Oregon actually faces one that does, they don't play like the best team in the nation.



- K. Becks

NCAAF Week 4 Weekend Preview

The common belief is that the teams in the SEC are always beating each other up, thus knocking each other out of contention for a national championship. This weekend is the start of the beatings that will likely ensue for the rest of the season in that conference. High profile SEC matchups (Alabama vs. Arkansas and South Carolina vs. Auburn, to name a couple) will result in at least two of the SEC's seven currently undefeated teams to suffer their first loss of the season. At least one Top 15 team will go down. Thanks to the top teams in the conference beating on each other this weekend, there will likely be a major shakeup in the rankings come Sunday. They branded two weekends ago Monster Saturday, but this weekend could be as monstrous as any in the SEC. After tomorrow, we will have a much clearer picture of who are the contenders and who are the pretenders down South.

Top 5 Games to Pay Attention to This Weekend

#1 Alabama at #10 Arkansas (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)

Last year, the Alabama defense shut down Ryan Mallett on their way to a 35-7 drubbing. This year the Razorbacks should be in a much better position to challenge the Tide. For Arkansas, it all starts with the turnaround on defense. A team that ranked last in total yards per game given up last year now ranks second in the SEC, behind only Alabama. Alabama is still very strong on defense, which should make it hard for Ryan Mallett to do a whole lot more than he was able to last year. If the defense for Arkansas is as improved on defense as the statistics suggest, they should keep this game close enough for Mallett to give them a shot at winning.

My Pick: 27-17 Alabama


#12 South Carolina at #12 Auburn (Saturday, 7:45 PM ET)

I was pretty sure that Clemson was going to be able to knock off Auburn last weekend, and if it hadn't been for Clemson quarterback Kyle Parker being injured the entire second half, they may have won that game. That is why am very confident that South Carolina will be able to do what their rivals could not last Saturday night. I don't think it was Clemson's defense that lost them the game. They just couldn't find a way to score points in the second half when they needed to. South Carolina has the tendency to have the same problem, but I believe that they won't even need to score that much in order to beat the Tigers.

My Pick: 24-13 South Carolina


#24 Oregon State at #3 Boise State (Saturday, 8 PM ET

Oregon State was able to keep the game against TCU close thanks to a couple of interceptions thrown by Andy Dalton. If the Beavers want to upset the number three team in the nation, they are going to have to force turnovers yet again. Boise's Kellen Moore was able to lead Boise over Virginia Tech thanks in part to the fact that he took good care of the football. If he is able to do that again, then the talent on the Broncos roster will probably be the difference in this game. Oregon State has gone as far as to practice on a blue field this week in preparation for the Smurf Turf, so if that doesn't say anything about the impact of playing in Boise for opposing teams, I don't know what does.

My Pick: 44-28 Boise State


#22 West Virginia at #15 LSU (Saturday, 9 PM ET)

Although they are 3-0, LSU doesn't really look like one of the best teams in the SEC this season. Even though they average over 28 points per game scoring, their passing game hasn't been all that productive. West Virginia, on the other hand, has had a surprisingly good passing game so far. This game will likely be a battle between LSU's defense (which has been solid) and West Virginia's offense, in particular the passing game. If this game were in Morgantown, I may go the other way with my pick. However, at home, LSU is going to need a collapse similar to the one they had against North Carolina in the second half in order to lose this game.

My Pick: 30-17 LSU


#5 Oregon at Arizona State (Saturday, 10:30 PM ET)

Arizona State did a nice job in Madison last weekend, coming within a blocked extra point of overtime with Wisconsin. This weekend the Sun Devils face an entirely different offensive attack. Oregon has been putting the pedal to the metal offensively in all three of their games this season, scoring an average of sixty-three points per game. It would be one of the shockers of the entire season if the Sun Devils were able to beat Oregon, and I'm not saying that it's going to happen. Just keep an eye on this game if Arizona State is still hanging around in the second half.

My Pick: Oregon 44-17


5 More to Flip To

#16 Stanford at Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)

I think Charlie Weis could have started 1-3 with this schedule too...

Temple at #23 Penn State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)

Temple looks to be the class of the MAC. They have the capability of making this one interesting.

UCLA at #7 Texas (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)

UCLA handled a Texas team last week. Can they make it two in a row?

Kentucky at #9 Florida (Saturday, 7 PM ET)

If this game wasn't being played at The Swamp, I would give Kentucky a much better chance of winning this game. Still, I think they at least have as much of a chance as Tennessee did last week.

California at #14 Arizona (Saturday, 10 PM ET)

The Pac-10 is weird. Arizona looked great last weekend, and Cal looked terrible. It could be the exact opposite this weekend, and I wouldn't even be all that surprised.


Storylines for the Weekend

North Carolina is cooked

Oh, how the tables have turned on the Tar Heels. Three weeks ago, they were getting ready for a game with the LSU Tigers, hoping that a win would be a proving point that they were one of the better teams in college football this season. Now, thanks to multiple suspensions handed out by the NCAA, the Tar Heels may just want to make it a goal to finish with a winning season. If North Carolina loses this weekend at Rutgers (which I believe they will), they will have a hard time not thinking of the 2010 campaign as a lost season. This is a sad but good example of what can happen when players receive improper benefits and are caught.

The Heisman race will begin to take shape

Right now, the Heisman bubble is still very fluid. After this weekend, we should have a better sense of who is really competing for college football's top individual prize. Ryan Mallett and Mark Ingram face off, which will undoubtedly result in one gaining a leg up on the other. Kellen Moore will get his second (and possibly last) shot to perform in front of a national audience to make his case as a Heisman contender. Terrelle Pryor has a chance to pad his stats against an Eastern Michigan team that is just plain bad. We're still weeks away from really knowing who is fighting for the bronze bust, but the conversation is becoming more relevant.



- K. Becks

Hold On There, Partner

We were all about ready to say that the Big Ten might be as good as the SEC this year. Unfortunately for Jim Delany, everyone is holding their tongues to avoid a premature anointment of greatness. The top of the Big Ten, save Ohio State (who rolled to a 43-7 victory over in-state rival Ohio), did not look very good at all this past weekend. Although the Buckeyes won, they still showed a weakness that has proven to be, at least at this point in the season, their only vulnerability; special teams. Iowa got into the mess that they did in the first half thanks to a blocked punt (which resulted in a touchdown) and a kickoff return for a touchdown. Wisconsin didn't look solid on special teams either, other than their block of Arizona State's extra point attempt in the fourth quarter, which ultimately proved to be the difference in a 20-19 Badgers win. What does all this say so far about the Big Ten? Well, since one of their best went down this past weekend, another survived a scare at home, and a third didn't have much trouble against a walkover (but still didn't look great on special teams), they need to fix the special teams dilemma. The weakness was highlighted in Ohio State's game against Miami two weekends ago. If the Big Ten wants to have a realistic shot of dethroning the SEC, they need to be able to contain these speedy return men, of which are plenty in the SEC. Special teams can win or lose games, and if the Big Ten wants to be on the winning side, they need to tighten up the special teams.

Part of being an NFL fan is that you must proclaim your team the greatest with each win, and cover your head to avoid a piece of the sky falling with each loss. This is especially true considering a team which, on paper, has all the tools to hold up the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season. Yes, I am talking about the Dallas Cowboys. It is hard to pinpoint what the real problem is for the Cowboys. They have been in close games with teams who may be surprisingly difficult to beat this year (sure, Chicago was a controversial call away from losing in Detroit. They are 2-0, though. Washington followed up their win against Dallas with a valiant effort against the 2-0 Texans). Tony Romo hasn't played terribly, either. I think that Dallas themselves are a little confused, which is why it has been rather quiet from the Cowboys camp. No one is pointing fingers. Yet. However, the Cowboys get to face the Houston Texans this weekend for their first road test. A third loss to start the season and fingers will be flying in every direction. The only mystery will be at whom.

I really hope that the Colorado Rockies make the playoffs. It seems that each year, the Rockies catch fire at precisely the right time in order to make a run for the playoffs, and add excitement to what can often be a rather bland National League picture. Now that Troy Tulowitzki is back, he has energized this Colorado team once again, and is playing like the best player in baseball. If the Rockies do manage to make the playoffs, I don't see why they can't make it all the way to the World Series, much like they did back in 2007. Statistically, the Rockies' pitching performance as a whole is not any better than the Phillies' pitching. However, thanks to the play of guys like Tulowitzski and Colorado's consistent raising of the bar deep into the season, I think it would be an extremely exciting series. If the Rockies don't make in the NLCS, then I think the league is the Phillies for the taking once again (that is, of course, assuming that they make the playoffs as well). I don't see enough from San Diego or San Francisco to suggest otherwise, and I think that Cincinnati's inexperience in the playoffs will ultimately be their demise.


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- K. Becks