NCAAF Week 13 Weekend Preview

Hopefully you've gorged yourselves on good food today, because you're going to want an excuse not to get off the couch starting tomorrow afternoon. It's an uncommon occurence that some of the most important college football games of the week will be taking place on a Friday. That's right; Oregon, Auburn, and Boise State (or, numbers one, two, and four in the BCS rankings) will all be taking to the field on Black Friday. Not only are the teams playing, but they are up against some potentially dangerous teams, making the games all the more interesting. By the time Saturday rolls around, we may already have chaos on our hands depending on how these teams fare tomorrow.

5 Games to Pay Attention To

West Virginia at Pittsburgh (Friday, 12 PM EST)

Not surprisingly, the Backyard Brawl will be crucial in deciding the winner of the Big East Conference. Currently, Pitt holds the lead at 4-1 in the conference, but if West Virginia is able to beat the Panthers, then both teams will sit at 4-2 with one game left (West Virginia, by way of head-to-head competition, would be placed ahead of Pitt in the standings. However, if West Virginia wins, they would have to hope for a UConn loss in order to win the conference). This year's installment of the Backyard Brawl will likely come down to who is better prepared on defense. Neither team has an overly explosive offense (West Virginia averages 363.6 yards per game on offense, compared with Pitt's 362.1), which will make every opportunity to score important for both teams. Both defenses will have to key on the opposing team's running game; for Pitt, the job will be stopping Noel Devine, and West Virginia will look to contain Dion Lewis. Due to Devine's issues this year because of injuries, I believe Pitt holds the upper hand in this one.

My Prediction: 24-17 Pitt


#2 Auburn at #9 Alabama (Friday, 2:30 PM EST)

This is possibly the most anticipated game of the year, let alone this weekend. Alabama, despite having suffered two losses, is still a slight favorite against the visiting Tigers. It is no secret that the Crimson Tide will be looking to stop Cam Newton and his duel threat abilities. Many times this season, Auburn has been in tight games with teams entering halftime, only to blow the game wide open in the second half on the way to somewhat comfortable victories. However, that probably won't be the case against Alabama. Although the Crimson Tide defense may not be as dominant and unbeatable as once thought, they still have the ability to shut down players like Newton. Alabama has the chance to play spoiler here, and there is reason to believe that they have something at stake too. If the Crimson Tide can pull out a win, they still may have a shot at receiving a BCS bowl bid. By late afternoon tomorrow, I believe that the result of this game will have the college football world in as chaotic a state as that of the malls tomorrow morning.

My Pick: 33-30 Alabama


#20 Arizona at #1 Oregon (Friday, 7 PM EST)

A few weeks ago, I predicted that the Oregon vs. California game would be a lot closer than many people expected, because Cal has the tendency to play well on a hit or miss basis. While my prediction proved to be correct, there may have been more than just "blind luck" behind their close game with the Ducks. Cal has the second best defense in the Pac-10, behind Oregon, and was able to hold the Ducks to their lowest point total of the season by twenty seven points. Arizona has the third best defense in the Pac-10, giving up just 3.3 more yards per game than Cal. Unlike Cal, Arizona has an offense capable of scoring with about as much ease as Oregon does. If it weren't for Cal's inability to move the ball late in the game, they may have been able to beat Oregon. Thanks to Nick Foles and the rest of the Wildcat offense, Arizona may be able to close the deal that their defense creates.

My Pick: 28-23 Arizona


#3 Boise State at #19 Nevada (Friday, 10:15 PM EST)

This is, hands down, the best WAC game of the season. Boise State has a great opportunity to make a good final impression with the voters by beating a solid Nevada team. For the last few years, the Wolfpack have been the toughest test in the WAC for the Broncos, with the 2007 game being decided in the 4th overtime, and the 2008 game being decided on the final play of regulation. Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick has yet to beat the Broncos in his career, but he is the main reason why Boise State has had so much trouble with Nevada the past three years. Kaepernick will have to play the game of his life in order to beat the Broncos tomorrow night, but don't put it past the fifth year senior. He has come within a play of knocking off Boise State, and he would love nothing better than to spoil the Broncos national title hopes in front of his home crowd. This is probably the biggest game of Kellen Moore's as well. He will know going into the game how the top two teams in the nation fared earlier in the day, which could be added pressure for the spectacular junior quarterback. Expect an exciting, high scoring affair in this one, with the play of the quarterbacks likely being the difference maker.

My Pick: 49-41 Boise State


#11 Michigan State at Penn State (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

This game could ultimately decide whether or not the Big Ten championship is shared by three teams or two. It is far less likely that Wisconsin will lose at home to Northwestern, or that Ohio State will lose at home to Michigan, but Penn State is a potential trap game for Michigan State. This year, Michigan State has drifted away from the usual Dantonio game plan that relies heavily on the run, and instead leans on Kirk Cousins to move the ball with a short passing attack. The Nittany Lions, however, have a defense capable of stopping that type of offense. They are second in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State, in pass defense, giving up just 189.7 yards per game through the air. If the Nittany Lions can stop Cousins and find ways to score themselves, then they could spoil what has been as close to a dream season as possible for the Spartans. Considering the way Michigan State has found ways to win games this year, I would not be surprised if this game ended up being decided in overtime.

My Pick: 35-34 Michigan State


5 More to Flip To

Michigan at Ohio State (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

Ohio State fans probably hope that Rich Rod will stay in Ann Arbor forever. Or, at least, that the Wolverines continue to have one of the worst defenses in college football.

Florida at #22 Florida State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

The Seminoles haven't beaten the Gators since three years before Tim Tebow arrived in Gainesville. This year is a great chance for the Seminoles to get a win against their rivals.

#6 LSU at #12 Arkansas (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

This is arguably one of the five biggest games of the weekend. If things work out right, LSU may not play for the SEC championship, yet be in position to play for the National Championship. And there are still people out there that support the current system...

Oregon State at #7 Stanford (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)

If Arizona doesn't beat Oregon, then the Beavers are the last line of defense for those in favor of parody. How they look against Stanford could be an indicator of how much of a shot they have against Oregon next weekend.

#14 Oklahoma at #10 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

This game decides the Big 12 South representative in the Big 12 Championship game. Again, arguably one of the top five games this weekend, but there aren't really any national title implications in this one.


Storylines for the Weekend

Gee-Whiz

On Wednesday, Ohio State President E. Gordon Gee told ESPN that teams like Boise State and TCU don't deserve to play for the national championship. Well, President Gee, whether you think they deserve it or not, they may be in the driver's seat for a title bid after this weekend. If things go the way I think they will, then the only two undefeated teams left in the nation will be the Broncos and the Horned Frogs. Gee may have a point; in most years, Boise State and TCU probably don't have a team capable of being one of the best in the nation. However, that doesn't give anyone the right to cast them aside when they do have a team talented enough to beat anyone they play. Also, since when did being President of Vanderbilt (a.k.a. Perennial Bottom Feeder of the SEC) give you the authority to comment on "running the gantlet" in that conference?

"It's dawg eat dawg, down heyre for au Bowyz"

After this weekend, we could have a situation in the SEC that is something like this: Auburn, currently the team with the best shot at a national championship, loses to Alabama is and thus out of the race. LSU, the team who would become the highest ranked SEC team in the BCS rankings, doesn't get a chance to play for the SEC Championship because they lost to Auburn earlier in the season, and is thus second in the SEC East. Alabama, the only team of the three with multiple losses, could still end up being arguably the best team of the three. This potential scenario would prove that the SEC beats each other up, and teams in the conference knock each other out of a chance to play for the national championship. Meanwhile, a team from a "lesser" conference waltzes in by playing seemingly easier competition. If this were to happen, you can bet Boise State and TCU wouldn't be the only teams voicing their support of a playoff.

Defense Wins Championships

I think that we will truly get to find out if Oregon is for real or not. Up to this point, they have really only played one team that has had a defense that the Little Sisters of the Poor (man, I'm really ripping on Gee's comments) wouldn't be able to score on; California. Cal was able to stop Oregon, and you can be sure that Arizona has the tape of that game, and has identified what Cal did to stop the Ducks offense. I think that tomorrow evening, the entire country will realize what I have suspected is the case for most of the season. The Pac-10 just doesn't have that many teams that can play good defense, and when Oregon actually faces one that does, they don't play like the best team in the nation.



- K. Becks

NCAAF Week 12 Weekend Preview

Since Oregon, Auburn, and TCU don't play this weekend, and Boise State just got done wrapping up another easy victory over Fresno State, there is very little that could potentially send a shockwave through the world of college football this weekend. In other words, if there was a weekend to step away from the action and do something other than watch college football on a Saturday, this would be it. Of course, true fans don't do that, right? Here are five games that should be interesting, even if they don't have that much bearing on the national title.

5 Games to Pay Attention To

Pittsburgh at South Florida (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

Does the Big East really deserve an automatic bid to a BCS bowl? It is a very realistic possibility that the Big East representative in a BCS bowl game could have four or more losses. In fact, no one in the Big East has less than three losses, and Pittsburgh, the current leader, is 5-4. As much as it seems like Pitt has stumbled through their entire season, they have actually done relatively well in conference play. Other than a loss at Connecticut last Friday, the Panthers have rolled through their conference schedule. South Florida has been playing well as of late, too. After failing to score in the double-digits in two straight games (losing both), the Bulls have reeled off three straight wins. It's really going to come down to which team shows up for both squads. Both have shown the ability to play well, but both have also had instances of looking completely flat in losses.

My Pick: 28-20 Pittsburgh


#14 Virginia Tech at #24 Miami (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

Both of these teams had national title aspirations at the beginning of the season. Although that is gone, they both have a considerable amount to play for. Virginia Tech, after dropping their opener against Boise State and then being embarrassed the next week against FCS opponent James Madison, has been on a tear, going undefeated since that point. Miami, who has had an up and down season and has experienced some issues at quarterback, are still in the hunt for the ACC Coastal Division title. The Hurricanes would have to beat Virginia Tech and then hope that the Hokies drop another one against Virginia in order to pull into a tie atop the standings (and thus receive the right to play for the ACC Championship game by way of the tie-breaker), but it isn't completely out of reach. Hurricanes coach Randy Shannon could also feel the heat at the end of the season if the Hurricanes don't pull off a big win.

My Pick: 30-17 Virginia Tech


#8 Ohio State at #21 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

The Buckeyes have beaten Iowa in eleven of the last twelve meetings between the two teams, but this may be the most difficult game yet for Coach Tressel. Iowa is coming off of a loss against Northwestern, a game in which they should have won. Although their record is only 7-3, the Hawkeyes pummeled a good Michigan State team, came within one point of beating Wisconsin, and has really only looked out of it in one game this entire season, at Arizona back in September. The balanced Hawkeye offensive attack could be a handful for the Buckeye defense, which had trouble against Wisconsin's heavy running attack. This game will probably end up coming down to two things; one, how motivated is Iowa? Two, will the Buckeyes make the necessary adjustments to stop Iowa's balanced offensive attack, or will they get behind early and not be able to make up the difference in the second half?

My Pick: 28-24 Iowa


#16 Oklahoma at Baylor (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

For some reason, I seem to have taken a liking to Baylor. Oklahoma has looked inconsistent at times this year, which is why I am giving the Bears a chance in this one. With that being said, Baylor has also had their moments of inconsistency this season. This is a battle for third place in the Big 12 South, and the winner could potentially finish second in the South if Texas A&M loses their final two games. Baylor will need to find a way to stop Oklahoma's offense, which has the ability to score at will on questionable defenses like Baylor's. However, if Baylor can match the Sooners on the offensive end, then an offensive shootout with plenty of highlight worthy footage should ensue.

My Pick: 48-38 Oklahoma


#9 Nebraska at #18 Texas A&M (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

Texas A&M, after choosing to start quarterback Ryan Tannehill, has apparently taken my advice from the Week 7 Preview and turned their season around. However, they did it without Jerrod Johnson, which surprised me. Like the Oklahoma game two weekends ago, this is a game where Tannehill can continue to make a name for himself with a big performance. It will be a tough task, however. Nebraska has the second best pass defense in the nation, giving up just over 140 yards per game through the air. Aggies running back Cyrus Gray will also have to have a big game in order to open up the passing game if Texas A&M wants to have success on offense. On defense, Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez will be the main focus. I'm sure that the Aggies would love if they had an actual 12th Man on the field, because stopping Martinez with just eleven has been difficult for other teams this season.

My Pick: 35-24 Nebraska


5 More to Flip To

North Carolina State at North Carolina (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

It's a little shocking that NC State is the one battling for an ACC Championship game berth...

#7 Stanford at Cal (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

I predict that Stanford will have far less trouble with Cal than Oregon did last weekend.

Illinois at Northwestern (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

Only because it's being played at Wrigley Field. Without Dan Persa, the Wildcats aren't that fun to watch...

Army at Notre Dame (Saturday, 7 PM EST)

This one isn't just on the list because it's being played at Yankee Stadium. I think some Notre Dame fans will be unpleasantly surprised at how much better Army football has gotten when this game is over.

#20 USC at Oregon State (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

Oregon State enters possibly one of the toughest late season stretches of any team in the country. They have the potential to pull off upsets in two of them...



- K. Becks

NCAAF: Big East Preview

There will be no coverage of Brett Favre on Around The Corn Sports Blog in the foreseeable future. I don't hate Favre; it's just that there has been too much coverage from the big time media outlets for me to get a fresh word in edgewise. The fact of the matter is, he will probably come back at some point this season, and this whole saga will be all for not.

Now, the moment you have all been waiting for: the beginning of my 2010 college football preview. I'll begin with the Beast from the East (eh, kind of...), the Big East Conference.

Overview

Of the Power 6 conferences, the Big East is routinely thought of as the weakest link. This year will probably prove to be no different, as the perennial powers in this conference are dealing with an array of challenges including coaching changes, new players at key positions, and difficult schedules. However, in recent years parody has been a frequent visitor to the Big East conference, especially in important games late in the season. This is one of the hardest conferences to predict due to the fact that many of the teams are relatively even, and any of them could emerge as the conference champion. With that being said, it should be a fun conference to watch, even if none of them have a shot at the national championship by the end of the regular season.

Team(s) With the Best Shot at a National Championship Bid
Pittsburgh

This is a real long shot, but we'll be able to tell early on whether or not the Panthers are truly one of the top teams in the nation. They have two tough games in September (at Utah [Sept. 2nd], Miami [Sept. 23rd]) that if nothing else will prepare them for their conference schedule. The problem that I see for Pitt in those two early season matchups is that they will be relying on an inexperienced quarterback to command the offense. Running back Dion Lewis is good, but can't completely carry the Panthers against teams like Utah and Miami. Pitt will likely be the class of the Big East by the end of the season, but won't be ready early on to remain in contention for a National Championship bid. Still, they're the best chance that the Big East has to put a team in the Big Game.

Watch Out! (Team That Could Surprise)
Rutgers

Ever since the Scarlet Knights 2006 breakout season, they have sort of been a middle of the pack team in the Big East. This season they could finally get back to where they thought they were headed after 2006. Granted, they do have to go on the road to face some of the toughest teams in the Big East (at Pitt [10/23], at Cincinnati [11/20], at West Virginia [12/4]), so this prediction could end up being way off. However, Rutgers is one of the few teams in the Big East that has a proven starter at quarterback, and with someone to throw to as well. Quarterback Tom Savage and wide receiver Mohamed Sanu could become a feared tandem not only in the Big East, but in the entire country, which may result in Rutgers having a similar season to the one they had four years ago.

Out-Of-Conference Game To Watch
Pittsburgh vs. Miami (Fla.) (September 23rd)

Both of these teams have a lot of work to do if this is to be a marquee matchup. Pittsburgh has to take care of always tough Utah, and Miami has to pull a huge upset over Ohio State in Columbus. If by chance those two things were to happen, this would definitely be the biggest game of the week, with the winner propelling themselves into the early national title picture. Even if it doesn't shape up to be that monumental, it still should be an entertaining game to watch.

In-Conference Game To Watch
Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia (November 26th)

The Backyard Brawl is always a must-see game, and this one should be no different. There is a good chance that the winner of this game will be the team representing the Big East in a BCS bowl, so this game will be very important to more than just these two teams. It will also be the Battle of the Backs, to see who the better running back in the Big East is; Noel Devine, or Dion Lewis.

Conference Predictions

1. Pittsburgh (9-3, [6-1])
2. West Virginia (9-3, [5-2])
3. Rutgers (8-4, [4-3])
4. Cincinnati (8-4, [4-3])
5. Connecticut (8-4, [3-4])
6. South Florida (5-7, [2-5])
7. Syracuse (4-8, [1-6])
8. Louisville (2-10, [0-7])



- K. Becks