Last Friday was possibly the worst day of the year for me. Well, actually, it was the worst day of the year. Starting with Alabama's complete meltdown against Auburn, and ending with Boise State's similar meltdown against Nevada, I realized that a dream had died. The outside chance that Boise State would meet TCU in the national championship, and thus become a catalyst for the progression of a playoff for college football, dissolved as quickly as Alabama's lead in the second half. While it is unlikely that there will be mass chaos in college football this year, my hope was renewed on Tuesday morning when TCU announced their intentions to leave the Mountain West Conference for the Big East starting in 2012. While this weekend may prove to be nothing more than going through the motions of conference championship games, let it be known that the dream has not completely, and never will, die.
5 Games to Pay Attention To
#1 Oregon at Oregon State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Before the beginning of the season when I gave my predictions for every college football team, I predicted that Oregon would end the season at 9-3. While that prediction was obviously off-base, one of the games I felt Oregon would lose was the annual Civil War battle against in-state rival Oregon State. After an entire season of observation of both teams, I no longer feel that is going to be the case. Oregon is only going to be beat by a team that can stop their high octane offense. In some of my previous Weekend Previews, I have felt confident about a few teams' chances against the Ducks (California, Stanford, Arizona, and Arizona State). Those teams have the best defenses in the Pac-10, and were the only teams in that conference, in my opinion, capable of bringing down the Ducks. Unfortunately, Oregon State has a defense that gives up a little over 400 yards per game, and ranks behind all the aforementioned teams in that category. With that being said, the only thing that supporters of chaos in the BCS can hope for is that the intensity of an in-state rivalry will motivate a sub-par Beavers defense to play far better than they have all season. While I'm in that category of fans, I wouldn't hold my breath on that happening.
My Pick: Oregon 49-35
#2 Auburn vs. #18 South Carolina (Saturday, 4 PM EST)
To start, let it be known that is it much tougher to beat a team the second time around. This game may not be as much about South Carolina being able to stop Auburn as it may be about them being able to exploit Auburn's defense. When Auburn has been in trouble this season, it has been because teams have picked on Auburn's weak defensive secondary. Alabama did it with Julio Jones, Georgia did it with A.J. Green, and South Carolina has already done it once this season with Alshon Jeffery. If Gamecocks quarterback Stephen Garcia can hook up with Jeffery early and often, we may see something similar to last Friday to start the game. That will open up the running game, and could put Auburn in a precarious position in the second half. Alabama had the game against Auburn won; they just beat themselves. If South Carolina can start off similarly, it will be up to them not to self-destruct.
My Pick: 37-34 South Carolina
#20 Florida State vs. #12 Virginia Tech (Saturday, 7:45 PM EST)
Talk about a game featuring a couple of programs that have turned it around. Jimbo Fisher, in just his first season as head coach of Florida State, has led the Seminoles back to where fans in Tallahassee feel they should be every year. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has quietly reeled off ten straight wins since dropping their first two games of the year, which included a loss against FCS opponent James Madison. While this game has no implications other than a trip to the Orange Bowl, it is still an interesting matchup. Virginia Tech is still a team that relies heavily on the run, even though quarterback Tyrod Taylor is a duel threat that can beat you through the air. Florida State's chances of success will likely hinge on how senior quarterback and leader Christian Ponder plays. He has the ability to play like an All-American, but is unpredictable. If we get to see Ponder at his best, then this will be a great game.
My Pick: 28-20 Virginia Tech
#13 Nebraska vs. #10 Oklahoma (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
Like the ACC championship game, this matchup has no real implications other than a trip to a BCS bowl for the winner. For Nebraska, it would be a storybook ending to their time in the Big 12; a win against rival Oklahoma that would give them their first overall Big 12 title since 1999, just as they head off for the Big Ten next season. For Oklahoma, this game could be somewhat of a redemption game. After reaching number one in the BCS rankings late in October, the Sooners promptly fell from the top spot after a loss to Missouri. Then, Oklahoma was largely forgotten after a loss against Texas A&M two weeks later left them in danger of not even qualifying to play for the Big 12 Championship. If Oklahoma can get a win against the Cornhuskers, some of the sentiment that they are inconsistent against quality teams this season could go away. Nebraska, on the other hand, would like to prove that they do in fact bring an offense with them to games against quality opponents. Expect this to be a close one.
My Pick: 31-27 Nebraska
Connecticut at South Florida (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
You may be wondering why this is a top five game to pay attention to this weekend. Well, believe it or not, one of these teams is playing for an outright Big East crown. If Connecticut can win this weekend against the Bulls, they will be the Big East champions. At 7-4. With an automatic bid to a BCS bowl. While Michigan State, at number seven and 11-1, will likely not play in a BCS bowl. As unfair as it may seem, it isn't a sure thing that UConn will even win this game. South Florida has been competitive in all but one game this season, and even made their case as arguably the third best team in Florida by beating Miami last weekend. If the Bulls do happen to beat the Huskies, then they have the slim chance of being tied atop the Big East standings with four other teams. And you thought the BCS formula was a mess...
My Pick: 28-24 Connecticut
5 More to Flip To
#24 Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) (Friday, 7 PM EST)
The RedHawks have been the turnaround story of the season, after going 1-11 in 2009. Northern Illinois isn't your average MAC team, though...
SMU vs. UCF (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
See what kind of looks people give you if you tell them you're going to watch the SMU vs. UCF game. Seriously, try it...
Utah State at #9 Boise State (Saturday, 3 PM EST)
You thought Wisconsin ran up the score? I wouldn't want to be the team that has to play Boise State after the loss they endured last Friday.
Washington at Washington State (Saturday, 7 PM EST)
The Huskies can become bowl eligible for the first time in Jake Locker's career if they can beat rival Washington State for the Apple Cup. That would make a whopping four Pac-10 teams bowl eligible.
USC vs. UCLA (Saturday, 10:30 PM EST)
I honestly just ran out of games I thought were interesting.
Storylines for the Weekend
The Cam Newton Rule
The general feeling from people associated with college football is that the ruling on Cam Newton's eligibility sets a bad precedent. Assuming that college football does not realize this would be ignorant. If the NCAA were to rule Newton ineligible, then you can bet that there would be lawsuits filed by both the Newton family and the University of Auburn. Rather than deal with that mess, the NCAA just decided that it would be better to let Newton play, then institute a rule (which we'll dub "Cam's Rule" for now) that prevents such actions from occurring in the future. So, to all you fathers out there making calls to your "agent buddy" to discuss how much your son is worth this very moment, sorry. It's not going to be allowed next season.
My Conference Re-Alignment Predictions, Part II
My prediction as to what the college football landscape will look like in the near future in order to accommodate a playoff will be posted soon. Check back tomorrow, as I will hopefully have it posted by then. If you haven't seen my original prediction, you can read it here. However, be warned that my original predictions are pretty off-base with TCU's recent announcement to join the Big East.
- K. Becks
Showing posts with label oklahoma. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oklahoma. Show all posts
Friday, December 3, 2010
Saturday, November 20, 2010
NCAAF Week 12 Weekend Preview
Since Oregon, Auburn, and TCU don't play this weekend, and Boise State just got done wrapping up another easy victory over Fresno State, there is very little that could potentially send a shockwave through the world of college football this weekend. In other words, if there was a weekend to step away from the action and do something other than watch college football on a Saturday, this would be it. Of course, true fans don't do that, right? Here are five games that should be interesting, even if they don't have that much bearing on the national title.
5 Games to Pay Attention To
Pittsburgh at South Florida (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
Does the Big East really deserve an automatic bid to a BCS bowl? It is a very realistic possibility that the Big East representative in a BCS bowl game could have four or more losses. In fact, no one in the Big East has less than three losses, and Pittsburgh, the current leader, is 5-4. As much as it seems like Pitt has stumbled through their entire season, they have actually done relatively well in conference play. Other than a loss at Connecticut last Friday, the Panthers have rolled through their conference schedule. South Florida has been playing well as of late, too. After failing to score in the double-digits in two straight games (losing both), the Bulls have reeled off three straight wins. It's really going to come down to which team shows up for both squads. Both have shown the ability to play well, but both have also had instances of looking completely flat in losses.
My Pick: 28-20 Pittsburgh
#14 Virginia Tech at #24 Miami (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Both of these teams had national title aspirations at the beginning of the season. Although that is gone, they both have a considerable amount to play for. Virginia Tech, after dropping their opener against Boise State and then being embarrassed the next week against FCS opponent James Madison, has been on a tear, going undefeated since that point. Miami, who has had an up and down season and has experienced some issues at quarterback, are still in the hunt for the ACC Coastal Division title. The Hurricanes would have to beat Virginia Tech and then hope that the Hokies drop another one against Virginia in order to pull into a tie atop the standings (and thus receive the right to play for the ACC Championship game by way of the tie-breaker), but it isn't completely out of reach. Hurricanes coach Randy Shannon could also feel the heat at the end of the season if the Hurricanes don't pull off a big win.
My Pick: 30-17 Virginia Tech
#8 Ohio State at #21 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
The Buckeyes have beaten Iowa in eleven of the last twelve meetings between the two teams, but this may be the most difficult game yet for Coach Tressel. Iowa is coming off of a loss against Northwestern, a game in which they should have won. Although their record is only 7-3, the Hawkeyes pummeled a good Michigan State team, came within one point of beating Wisconsin, and has really only looked out of it in one game this entire season, at Arizona back in September. The balanced Hawkeye offensive attack could be a handful for the Buckeye defense, which had trouble against Wisconsin's heavy running attack. This game will probably end up coming down to two things; one, how motivated is Iowa? Two, will the Buckeyes make the necessary adjustments to stop Iowa's balanced offensive attack, or will they get behind early and not be able to make up the difference in the second half?
My Pick: 28-24 Iowa
#16 Oklahoma at Baylor (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
For some reason, I seem to have taken a liking to Baylor. Oklahoma has looked inconsistent at times this year, which is why I am giving the Bears a chance in this one. With that being said, Baylor has also had their moments of inconsistency this season. This is a battle for third place in the Big 12 South, and the winner could potentially finish second in the South if Texas A&M loses their final two games. Baylor will need to find a way to stop Oklahoma's offense, which has the ability to score at will on questionable defenses like Baylor's. However, if Baylor can match the Sooners on the offensive end, then an offensive shootout with plenty of highlight worthy footage should ensue.
My Pick: 48-38 Oklahoma
#9 Nebraska at #18 Texas A&M (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
Texas A&M, after choosing to start quarterback Ryan Tannehill, has apparently taken my advice from the Week 7 Preview and turned their season around. However, they did it without Jerrod Johnson, which surprised me. Like the Oklahoma game two weekends ago, this is a game where Tannehill can continue to make a name for himself with a big performance. It will be a tough task, however. Nebraska has the second best pass defense in the nation, giving up just over 140 yards per game through the air. Aggies running back Cyrus Gray will also have to have a big game in order to open up the passing game if Texas A&M wants to have success on offense. On defense, Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez will be the main focus. I'm sure that the Aggies would love if they had an actual 12th Man on the field, because stopping Martinez with just eleven has been difficult for other teams this season.
My Pick: 35-24 Nebraska
5 More to Flip To
North Carolina State at North Carolina (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
It's a little shocking that NC State is the one battling for an ACC Championship game berth...
#7 Stanford at Cal (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
I predict that Stanford will have far less trouble with Cal than Oregon did last weekend.
Illinois at Northwestern (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Only because it's being played at Wrigley Field. Without Dan Persa, the Wildcats aren't that fun to watch...
Army at Notre Dame (Saturday, 7 PM EST)
This one isn't just on the list because it's being played at Yankee Stadium. I think some Notre Dame fans will be unpleasantly surprised at how much better Army football has gotten when this game is over.
#20 USC at Oregon State (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
Oregon State enters possibly one of the toughest late season stretches of any team in the country. They have the potential to pull off upsets in two of them...
- K. Becks
5 Games to Pay Attention To
Pittsburgh at South Florida (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
Does the Big East really deserve an automatic bid to a BCS bowl? It is a very realistic possibility that the Big East representative in a BCS bowl game could have four or more losses. In fact, no one in the Big East has less than three losses, and Pittsburgh, the current leader, is 5-4. As much as it seems like Pitt has stumbled through their entire season, they have actually done relatively well in conference play. Other than a loss at Connecticut last Friday, the Panthers have rolled through their conference schedule. South Florida has been playing well as of late, too. After failing to score in the double-digits in two straight games (losing both), the Bulls have reeled off three straight wins. It's really going to come down to which team shows up for both squads. Both have shown the ability to play well, but both have also had instances of looking completely flat in losses.
My Pick: 28-20 Pittsburgh
#14 Virginia Tech at #24 Miami (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Both of these teams had national title aspirations at the beginning of the season. Although that is gone, they both have a considerable amount to play for. Virginia Tech, after dropping their opener against Boise State and then being embarrassed the next week against FCS opponent James Madison, has been on a tear, going undefeated since that point. Miami, who has had an up and down season and has experienced some issues at quarterback, are still in the hunt for the ACC Coastal Division title. The Hurricanes would have to beat Virginia Tech and then hope that the Hokies drop another one against Virginia in order to pull into a tie atop the standings (and thus receive the right to play for the ACC Championship game by way of the tie-breaker), but it isn't completely out of reach. Hurricanes coach Randy Shannon could also feel the heat at the end of the season if the Hurricanes don't pull off a big win.
My Pick: 30-17 Virginia Tech
#8 Ohio State at #21 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
The Buckeyes have beaten Iowa in eleven of the last twelve meetings between the two teams, but this may be the most difficult game yet for Coach Tressel. Iowa is coming off of a loss against Northwestern, a game in which they should have won. Although their record is only 7-3, the Hawkeyes pummeled a good Michigan State team, came within one point of beating Wisconsin, and has really only looked out of it in one game this entire season, at Arizona back in September. The balanced Hawkeye offensive attack could be a handful for the Buckeye defense, which had trouble against Wisconsin's heavy running attack. This game will probably end up coming down to two things; one, how motivated is Iowa? Two, will the Buckeyes make the necessary adjustments to stop Iowa's balanced offensive attack, or will they get behind early and not be able to make up the difference in the second half?
My Pick: 28-24 Iowa
#16 Oklahoma at Baylor (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
For some reason, I seem to have taken a liking to Baylor. Oklahoma has looked inconsistent at times this year, which is why I am giving the Bears a chance in this one. With that being said, Baylor has also had their moments of inconsistency this season. This is a battle for third place in the Big 12 South, and the winner could potentially finish second in the South if Texas A&M loses their final two games. Baylor will need to find a way to stop Oklahoma's offense, which has the ability to score at will on questionable defenses like Baylor's. However, if Baylor can match the Sooners on the offensive end, then an offensive shootout with plenty of highlight worthy footage should ensue.
My Pick: 48-38 Oklahoma
#9 Nebraska at #18 Texas A&M (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
Texas A&M, after choosing to start quarterback Ryan Tannehill, has apparently taken my advice from the Week 7 Preview and turned their season around. However, they did it without Jerrod Johnson, which surprised me. Like the Oklahoma game two weekends ago, this is a game where Tannehill can continue to make a name for himself with a big performance. It will be a tough task, however. Nebraska has the second best pass defense in the nation, giving up just over 140 yards per game through the air. Aggies running back Cyrus Gray will also have to have a big game in order to open up the passing game if Texas A&M wants to have success on offense. On defense, Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez will be the main focus. I'm sure that the Aggies would love if they had an actual 12th Man on the field, because stopping Martinez with just eleven has been difficult for other teams this season.
My Pick: 35-24 Nebraska
5 More to Flip To
North Carolina State at North Carolina (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
It's a little shocking that NC State is the one battling for an ACC Championship game berth...
#7 Stanford at Cal (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
I predict that Stanford will have far less trouble with Cal than Oregon did last weekend.
Illinois at Northwestern (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Only because it's being played at Wrigley Field. Without Dan Persa, the Wildcats aren't that fun to watch...
Army at Notre Dame (Saturday, 7 PM EST)
This one isn't just on the list because it's being played at Yankee Stadium. I think some Notre Dame fans will be unpleasantly surprised at how much better Army football has gotten when this game is over.
#20 USC at Oregon State (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
Oregon State enters possibly one of the toughest late season stretches of any team in the country. They have the potential to pull off upsets in two of them...
- K. Becks
Friday, October 22, 2010
NCAAF Week 8 Weekend Preview
Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately, depending on how you look at it) I don't really have the kind of time to break down the "5 Games to Pay Attention To" like I have been the past few weeks. Instead, the analysis will more closely resemble that of the "5 More to Flip To" section. Who am I kidding? About three people on average read this blog anyway, and I went 0-5 in picking games last weekend. If anything, I shouldn't be allowed to have an extended analysis on games, because Cam Newton keeps making them look bad. All right, here we go.
5 Games to Pay Attention To
#8 Michigan State at Northwestern (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
Each game gets harder to win when you're undefeated this late into the season. Northwestern can be a tricky team to play, especially at home. Also, this is the first time this season that the Spartans will be playing outside of the state of Michigan. Michigan State has one of the better offensive attacks in the Big Ten this season (with 447.6 yards per game), which should be to their advantage. Northwestern hasn't exactly been shutting down opposing teams' offenses this season. At the end of the day, the Spartans should be one step closer to their goal of a Big Ten Championship and possibly more.
My Pick: 35-21 Michigan State
#10 Wisconsin at #13 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Ohio State fans can blame the special teams, the offensive line, or just Terrelle Pryor, but the real reason that the Buckeyes lost last weekend in Madison isn't even on the field. What is the problem then, you ask? The problem is defensive coordinator Jim Heacock. How many times will you insist on playing teams with equally or close to equally talented players straight up, Jim? With this being said, Iowa should be able to see what Michigan State saw when they were able to upset the Badgers; stop the run, and you will be in good shape. The Buckeyes couldn't do it, but should have been able to. The Hawkeyes can and will, and that will be the difference in the game.
My Pick: 28-17 Iowa
#14 Nebraska at #17 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Nebraska may have been exposed last weekend, but let's not forget that the Texas team they played is no pushover. The Longhorns came out with an intensity that the Cornhuskers couldn't match, and the early lead that Texas got out to ended up being the difference. I find it hard to believe that Nebraska will be caught off guard in consecutive weeks. Also, let's remember that while Oklahoma State is undefeated, they could very well have lost to Texas A&M earlier in the season, and were basically handed the win late in the fourth quarter. Unless Nebraska is a real pretender (kind of contradictory, right?), I see them spoiling the party in Stillwater tomorrow.
My Pick: 31-21 Nebraska
#6 LSU at #5 Auburn (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Who would have guessed that these would be the two highest ranked SEC teams at this point in the season? Not me, that's for sure. I've been saying for weeks that Auburn quarterback Cam Newton is a "poor man's Terrelle Pryor", and he keeps making me sound like a fool. Granted, I still don't have total confidence in Newton's throwing ability, but he hasn't really been forced to rely on his arm so far. Also, calling anyone a "poor man's Terrelle Pryor" is a total slam after Pryor's performance last weekend in Madison. For the first time this season, I actually think that Auburn can win a game featured on my "5 Games to Pay Attention To" list. Auburn's suspect pass defense shouldn't really hurt them, since LSU doesn't have much of a passing game. On the offensive side, Newton should once again look like a hero in leading Auburn to yet another big win. Sorry Auburn fans, for disrespecting you like that for all those weeks.
My Pick: 35-24 Auburn
#3 Oklahoma at #18 Missouri (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
So, if you want to get technical, the answer to "will the number one team in the nation go down for a third consecutive week?" has already been answered. Oregon is number one in the AP and coaches poll, and those are the only polls we had until Monday of this week. Since Oregon obliterated UCLA last night, the answer would be no. If you want to call Oklahoma number one since they are at the top of the BCS rankings, fine. The answer to the original question is still no. Other than Texas A&M (and Illinois, if you really want to stretch it), Missouri doesn't really have any marquee wins this season. So their conference best 10.8 points per game given up must be noted with that in mind. Oklahoma, on the other hand, while not looking great against less than stellar opponents Cincinnati and Utah State, has wins over Florida State, Air Force, and Texas. While this has the potential to be an interesting game, I don't expect a shocker here.
My Pick: 38-24 Oklahoma
5 More to Flip To
Notre Dame at Navy (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
Notre Dame fans no longer consider the Navy game a give-me. For good reason; I think that Navy has the upper hand in this one.
Rutgers at Pittsburgh (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
The team that wins this game should be the team with the best shot at challenging West Virginia for the Big East Championship.
Purdue at #11 Ohio State (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
The Boilermakers do lead the Big Ten right now. However, like Nebraska, I doubt that the Buckeyes will be caught off guard in consecutive weeks...
North Carolina at #25 Miami (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)
Now that the dust has begun to settle after the fiasco at North Carolina earlier this season, they still find themselves with a chance at making it to the ACC title game. This game is crucial for both teams' chances to make it to Charlotte in December.
Air Force at #4 TCU (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
Other than the TCU vs. Utah showdown at the end of the season, this is the next best game in the Mountain West Conference.
Storylines for the Weekend
The Cat or the Hat?
The SEC is pretty much relying on one of three scenarios in order to get a team into the National Championship game; either Auburn or LSU runs the table, or enough teams lose so that a one loss team (presumably Alabama, considering their current ranking) can sneak in. This weekend will likely narrow it down to two possible scenarios. In possibly the biggest SEC game featuring schools not named Florida or Alabama in two years, Auburn and LSU will square off to try to keep their national title dreams intact. The team that wins will have a tough, but manageable road to Glendale, while the loser will likely be out of the conversation for the remainder of the season.
Will Boise State even try to run up the score?
It is common for teams such as Boise State (or Utah, or Hawaii, or whoever is undefeated in the WAC or Mountain West in any given year) to run up the score against lesser opponents for "style points". That is, to convince the voters that they are a legitimate team worthy of receiving first place votes, if they are high enough in the rankings. However, it has been speculated that Boise has reached the ceiling as far as how high they can climb in the rankings. The voters are very reluctant to vote the Broncos number one, and style points mean nothing when the BCS formula is calculated. With this being said, will Boise continue to try to pick up "style points" by beating their WAC opponents by forty points or more? Or will they throw up the white flag until the Nevada game, where they can potentially gain respect from voters by beating a Wolfpack team who could very well be undefeated as well when the two teams square off November 26th.
- K. Becks
5 Games to Pay Attention To
#8 Michigan State at Northwestern (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
Each game gets harder to win when you're undefeated this late into the season. Northwestern can be a tricky team to play, especially at home. Also, this is the first time this season that the Spartans will be playing outside of the state of Michigan. Michigan State has one of the better offensive attacks in the Big Ten this season (with 447.6 yards per game), which should be to their advantage. Northwestern hasn't exactly been shutting down opposing teams' offenses this season. At the end of the day, the Spartans should be one step closer to their goal of a Big Ten Championship and possibly more.
My Pick: 35-21 Michigan State
#10 Wisconsin at #13 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Ohio State fans can blame the special teams, the offensive line, or just Terrelle Pryor, but the real reason that the Buckeyes lost last weekend in Madison isn't even on the field. What is the problem then, you ask? The problem is defensive coordinator Jim Heacock. How many times will you insist on playing teams with equally or close to equally talented players straight up, Jim? With this being said, Iowa should be able to see what Michigan State saw when they were able to upset the Badgers; stop the run, and you will be in good shape. The Buckeyes couldn't do it, but should have been able to. The Hawkeyes can and will, and that will be the difference in the game.
My Pick: 28-17 Iowa
#14 Nebraska at #17 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Nebraska may have been exposed last weekend, but let's not forget that the Texas team they played is no pushover. The Longhorns came out with an intensity that the Cornhuskers couldn't match, and the early lead that Texas got out to ended up being the difference. I find it hard to believe that Nebraska will be caught off guard in consecutive weeks. Also, let's remember that while Oklahoma State is undefeated, they could very well have lost to Texas A&M earlier in the season, and were basically handed the win late in the fourth quarter. Unless Nebraska is a real pretender (kind of contradictory, right?), I see them spoiling the party in Stillwater tomorrow.
My Pick: 31-21 Nebraska
#6 LSU at #5 Auburn (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)
Who would have guessed that these would be the two highest ranked SEC teams at this point in the season? Not me, that's for sure. I've been saying for weeks that Auburn quarterback Cam Newton is a "poor man's Terrelle Pryor", and he keeps making me sound like a fool. Granted, I still don't have total confidence in Newton's throwing ability, but he hasn't really been forced to rely on his arm so far. Also, calling anyone a "poor man's Terrelle Pryor" is a total slam after Pryor's performance last weekend in Madison. For the first time this season, I actually think that Auburn can win a game featured on my "5 Games to Pay Attention To" list. Auburn's suspect pass defense shouldn't really hurt them, since LSU doesn't have much of a passing game. On the offensive side, Newton should once again look like a hero in leading Auburn to yet another big win. Sorry Auburn fans, for disrespecting you like that for all those weeks.
My Pick: 35-24 Auburn
#3 Oklahoma at #18 Missouri (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
So, if you want to get technical, the answer to "will the number one team in the nation go down for a third consecutive week?" has already been answered. Oregon is number one in the AP and coaches poll, and those are the only polls we had until Monday of this week. Since Oregon obliterated UCLA last night, the answer would be no. If you want to call Oklahoma number one since they are at the top of the BCS rankings, fine. The answer to the original question is still no. Other than Texas A&M (and Illinois, if you really want to stretch it), Missouri doesn't really have any marquee wins this season. So their conference best 10.8 points per game given up must be noted with that in mind. Oklahoma, on the other hand, while not looking great against less than stellar opponents Cincinnati and Utah State, has wins over Florida State, Air Force, and Texas. While this has the potential to be an interesting game, I don't expect a shocker here.
My Pick: 38-24 Oklahoma
5 More to Flip To
Notre Dame at Navy (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
Notre Dame fans no longer consider the Navy game a give-me. For good reason; I think that Navy has the upper hand in this one.
Rutgers at Pittsburgh (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
The team that wins this game should be the team with the best shot at challenging West Virginia for the Big East Championship.
Purdue at #11 Ohio State (Saturday, 12 PM EST)
The Boilermakers do lead the Big Ten right now. However, like Nebraska, I doubt that the Buckeyes will be caught off guard in consecutive weeks...
North Carolina at #25 Miami (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)
Now that the dust has begun to settle after the fiasco at North Carolina earlier this season, they still find themselves with a chance at making it to the ACC title game. This game is crucial for both teams' chances to make it to Charlotte in December.
Air Force at #4 TCU (Saturday, 8 PM EST)
Other than the TCU vs. Utah showdown at the end of the season, this is the next best game in the Mountain West Conference.
Storylines for the Weekend
The Cat or the Hat?
The SEC is pretty much relying on one of three scenarios in order to get a team into the National Championship game; either Auburn or LSU runs the table, or enough teams lose so that a one loss team (presumably Alabama, considering their current ranking) can sneak in. This weekend will likely narrow it down to two possible scenarios. In possibly the biggest SEC game featuring schools not named Florida or Alabama in two years, Auburn and LSU will square off to try to keep their national title dreams intact. The team that wins will have a tough, but manageable road to Glendale, while the loser will likely be out of the conversation for the remainder of the season.
Will Boise State even try to run up the score?
It is common for teams such as Boise State (or Utah, or Hawaii, or whoever is undefeated in the WAC or Mountain West in any given year) to run up the score against lesser opponents for "style points". That is, to convince the voters that they are a legitimate team worthy of receiving first place votes, if they are high enough in the rankings. However, it has been speculated that Boise has reached the ceiling as far as how high they can climb in the rankings. The voters are very reluctant to vote the Broncos number one, and style points mean nothing when the BCS formula is calculated. With this being said, will Boise continue to try to pick up "style points" by beating their WAC opponents by forty points or more? Or will they throw up the white flag until the Nevada game, where they can potentially gain respect from voters by beating a Wolfpack team who could very well be undefeated as well when the two teams square off November 26th.
- K. Becks
Friday, October 1, 2010
NCAAF Week 5 Weekend Preview
It seems as if the slate of games from week to week just keeps getting better. If last week wasn't good enough for you, then you're in luck: four of the Big 6 conferences feature games in which two top 25 teams will square off against one another. In two of those four games, both teams are in the top ten. Also, the Boise State debate truly begins, now that the supposed "tough part" of their schedule is behind them, perfect record still intact. This is a bigger weekend than "Monster Saturday" in my opinion, just because of the stakes of certain games. Some of these matchups could ultimately decide who wins a conference.
Top 5 Games to Pay Attention to This Weekend
#11 Wisconsin at #24 Michigan State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)
Both of these teams rely on the running game to carry the offensive load. The question is, which defense will do a better job of containing the run? Wisconsin running back John Clay ran for over 100 yards last year in a win over the Spartans, and will likely be a factor in tomorrow's game. While the Spartans biggest task may be stopping Clay, they cannot forget about Badgers quarterback Scott Tolzien. Tolzien was key in Wisconsin's win last year by throwing four touchdown passes, and could very well be the x-factor in this game as well. Michigan State has the tools to win this game, but they are going to need to play exceptionally well on both sides of the ball in order to do it.
My Pick: 27-21 Wisconsin
#21 Texas at #8 Oklahoma (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)
It's not often that the Red River Rivalry isn't regarded as the biggest game of the weekend, but thanks to UCLA's drubbing of the Longhorns last Saturday, it definitely lost some significance in the public eye. However, counting Texas out in this game would be a grave mistake. The Longhorns' loss last weekend can be attributed to two factors: inexperience, and the fact that they had five turnovers. If they can take care of the football better, they should have a much better chance of winning this weekend. I had said at the beginning of this season that I thought Oklahoma was underrated; after the Cincinnati game, I started to wonder if I was wrong. Redemption for last week, as well as the added intensity of a rivalry game should make this one worth watching.
My Pick: 34-24 Oklahoma
#9 Stanford at #4 Oregon (Saturday, 8 PM ET)
This is quite possibly the best game in the Pac-10 this year. These two teams are arguably the best in the conference, and both have been very solid offensively and defensively. Oregon looked almost unstoppable in their first three games, but then struggled a bit against an Arizona State team who has been surprisingly tough this season. Like UCLA, they showed how much turnovers (they forced seven against Arizona State) can be a difference maker. However, the Ducks probably won't be able to rely on turnovers against the Cardinal. Andrew Luck is an extremely talented quarterback who makes good reads and decisions in the pocket. Disrupting Luck will be the task at hand for the Ducks. As for the Cardinal defense, keeping the game close is about all you can do. Oregon will score, but limiting the scoring so that Luck has a chance will be the key. This one is a toss-up, but considering I picked Stanford to win the conference, I'm looking for the upset.
My Pick: 44-41 Stanford
#7 Florida at #1 Alabama (Saturday, 8 PM ET)
Other than the loyal Crimson Tide fan base, hearts around the country sank when Ryan Mallet's pass, which was intended to be thrown away, was intercepted by Dre Kirkpatrick, thus sealing the game for Alabama. Maybe next week, right? Well, maybe not. Like Texas was, Florida is probably a little higher in the rankings than they ought to be. Other than last week against Kentucky, the Gators have not looked particularly impressive, and have shown sloppiness on the offensive side of the ball. Tailback Jeff Demps, who has been one of the more productive players for Florida this year, has been wearing a protective boot on his left foot all week. While he should play, his possible diminished impact could be devastating for the Gators. Even with Demps, I don't know how confident I would be in picking Florida to win this game. Still, no one thought Alabama was going to beat Florida last year, either. It could be a shocker, in which case I'll have to eat my words about Florida being overrated.
My Pick: 30-17 Alabama
#22 Penn State at #17 Iowa (Saturday, 8:05 PM ET)
This has been a very intriguing series over the last couple of years. In both 2008 and 2009, Penn State came in as the heavy favorites over the Hawkeyes, but the Hawkeyes managed to win both times. This year, the tables have been turned, as Iowa is the favorite against a Penn State team that has been struggling. The Nittany Lions have had trouble on the offensive end, which is understandable after losing quarterback and team leader Daryll Clark to graduation. Although the rankings wouldn't suggest it, a Penn State win would be about as monumental an upset as when Iowa beat the Nittany Lions in 2008 (when Penn State was ranked #3) considering the way their season has been going so far. Joe Pa's team needs to be more productive on offense if they want that to happen, though.
My Pick: 24-17 Iowa
5 More to Flip To
#16 Miami (Fla.) at Clemson (Saturday, 12 PM ET)
This could be an indicator of who the best team in the entire ACC is.
#2 Ohio State at Illinois (Saturday, 12 PM ET)
Illinois can be a tricky team to play on the road. Also, Ron Zook may be on his way out after this season, so he may try to pull out all the stops to get a "job-saver" win.
Virginia Tech at #23 N.C. State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)
One of the surprises of the season, N.C. State looks to stay atop the ACC Atlantic division standings.
Tennessee at #12 LSU (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)
I'll probably put Tennessee on this list every week from here on out. They always seem to have a shot, and I don't think this week will be any different.
Arizona State at Oregon State (Saturday, 6:30 PM ET)
Oregon State didn't get through their non-conference schedule how they would have liked, but they can start off the Pac-10 season on a positive note by beating a Sun Devils team that has been surprisingly tough this year.
Storylines for the Weekend
How will Georgia respond?
Two weeks ago, I said that Mark Richt was not going to lose his job after this season. Now, he has the tools back to prove me right. After serving his four game suspension, All-SEC wide receiver A.J. Green will be back to help the Bulldogs take on Colorado. How big of a deal is this for Georgia? Well, I picked Green as one of my preseason Heisman hopefuls, and the 6'4 receiver is a huge target who can go up and pick balls out of the air, which should help out redshirt freshman quarterback Aaron Murray tremendously. Georgia still has a chance to turn this season around, and if they do, Green will likely be instrumental in their success.
Who wants to step up?
The ACC is doing it again. It's impossible to peg a team in the conference as the best for more than a week. Rankings wise, Miami is still the best team. However, upstart N.C. State is the only team in the conference that is still unbeaten. Virginia Tech, which got off to the worst start possible, now has the chance to take the lead in the Coastal division with a win against N.C. State. In other words, this conference is a mess. Again. If someone wants to step up as the frontrunner in this division, then now would be the time to do it.
- K. Becks
Top 5 Games to Pay Attention to This Weekend
#11 Wisconsin at #24 Michigan State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)
Both of these teams rely on the running game to carry the offensive load. The question is, which defense will do a better job of containing the run? Wisconsin running back John Clay ran for over 100 yards last year in a win over the Spartans, and will likely be a factor in tomorrow's game. While the Spartans biggest task may be stopping Clay, they cannot forget about Badgers quarterback Scott Tolzien. Tolzien was key in Wisconsin's win last year by throwing four touchdown passes, and could very well be the x-factor in this game as well. Michigan State has the tools to win this game, but they are going to need to play exceptionally well on both sides of the ball in order to do it.
My Pick: 27-21 Wisconsin
#21 Texas at #8 Oklahoma (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)
It's not often that the Red River Rivalry isn't regarded as the biggest game of the weekend, but thanks to UCLA's drubbing of the Longhorns last Saturday, it definitely lost some significance in the public eye. However, counting Texas out in this game would be a grave mistake. The Longhorns' loss last weekend can be attributed to two factors: inexperience, and the fact that they had five turnovers. If they can take care of the football better, they should have a much better chance of winning this weekend. I had said at the beginning of this season that I thought Oklahoma was underrated; after the Cincinnati game, I started to wonder if I was wrong. Redemption for last week, as well as the added intensity of a rivalry game should make this one worth watching.
My Pick: 34-24 Oklahoma
#9 Stanford at #4 Oregon (Saturday, 8 PM ET)
This is quite possibly the best game in the Pac-10 this year. These two teams are arguably the best in the conference, and both have been very solid offensively and defensively. Oregon looked almost unstoppable in their first three games, but then struggled a bit against an Arizona State team who has been surprisingly tough this season. Like UCLA, they showed how much turnovers (they forced seven against Arizona State) can be a difference maker. However, the Ducks probably won't be able to rely on turnovers against the Cardinal. Andrew Luck is an extremely talented quarterback who makes good reads and decisions in the pocket. Disrupting Luck will be the task at hand for the Ducks. As for the Cardinal defense, keeping the game close is about all you can do. Oregon will score, but limiting the scoring so that Luck has a chance will be the key. This one is a toss-up, but considering I picked Stanford to win the conference, I'm looking for the upset.
My Pick: 44-41 Stanford
#7 Florida at #1 Alabama (Saturday, 8 PM ET)
Other than the loyal Crimson Tide fan base, hearts around the country sank when Ryan Mallet's pass, which was intended to be thrown away, was intercepted by Dre Kirkpatrick, thus sealing the game for Alabama. Maybe next week, right? Well, maybe not. Like Texas was, Florida is probably a little higher in the rankings than they ought to be. Other than last week against Kentucky, the Gators have not looked particularly impressive, and have shown sloppiness on the offensive side of the ball. Tailback Jeff Demps, who has been one of the more productive players for Florida this year, has been wearing a protective boot on his left foot all week. While he should play, his possible diminished impact could be devastating for the Gators. Even with Demps, I don't know how confident I would be in picking Florida to win this game. Still, no one thought Alabama was going to beat Florida last year, either. It could be a shocker, in which case I'll have to eat my words about Florida being overrated.
My Pick: 30-17 Alabama
#22 Penn State at #17 Iowa (Saturday, 8:05 PM ET)
This has been a very intriguing series over the last couple of years. In both 2008 and 2009, Penn State came in as the heavy favorites over the Hawkeyes, but the Hawkeyes managed to win both times. This year, the tables have been turned, as Iowa is the favorite against a Penn State team that has been struggling. The Nittany Lions have had trouble on the offensive end, which is understandable after losing quarterback and team leader Daryll Clark to graduation. Although the rankings wouldn't suggest it, a Penn State win would be about as monumental an upset as when Iowa beat the Nittany Lions in 2008 (when Penn State was ranked #3) considering the way their season has been going so far. Joe Pa's team needs to be more productive on offense if they want that to happen, though.
My Pick: 24-17 Iowa
5 More to Flip To
#16 Miami (Fla.) at Clemson (Saturday, 12 PM ET)
This could be an indicator of who the best team in the entire ACC is.
#2 Ohio State at Illinois (Saturday, 12 PM ET)
Illinois can be a tricky team to play on the road. Also, Ron Zook may be on his way out after this season, so he may try to pull out all the stops to get a "job-saver" win.
Virginia Tech at #23 N.C. State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)
One of the surprises of the season, N.C. State looks to stay atop the ACC Atlantic division standings.
Tennessee at #12 LSU (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)
I'll probably put Tennessee on this list every week from here on out. They always seem to have a shot, and I don't think this week will be any different.
Arizona State at Oregon State (Saturday, 6:30 PM ET)
Oregon State didn't get through their non-conference schedule how they would have liked, but they can start off the Pac-10 season on a positive note by beating a Sun Devils team that has been surprisingly tough this year.
Storylines for the Weekend
How will Georgia respond?
Two weeks ago, I said that Mark Richt was not going to lose his job after this season. Now, he has the tools back to prove me right. After serving his four game suspension, All-SEC wide receiver A.J. Green will be back to help the Bulldogs take on Colorado. How big of a deal is this for Georgia? Well, I picked Green as one of my preseason Heisman hopefuls, and the 6'4 receiver is a huge target who can go up and pick balls out of the air, which should help out redshirt freshman quarterback Aaron Murray tremendously. Georgia still has a chance to turn this season around, and if they do, Green will likely be instrumental in their success.
Who wants to step up?
The ACC is doing it again. It's impossible to peg a team in the conference as the best for more than a week. Rankings wise, Miami is still the best team. However, upstart N.C. State is the only team in the conference that is still unbeaten. Virginia Tech, which got off to the worst start possible, now has the chance to take the lead in the Coastal division with a win against N.C. State. In other words, this conference is a mess. Again. If someone wants to step up as the frontrunner in this division, then now would be the time to do it.
- K. Becks
Saturday, August 21, 2010
NCAAF: Big 12 Preview
Overview
The Big 12 should be a very interesting conference to watch this year. They were the talk of the off-season, with Colorado and Nebraska going public with their intentions to bolt for the Pac-10 and Big 10 conferences next year, and that's just the beginning. Multiple teams, including Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma, will start the season with high hopes of going undefeated and possibly receiving a bid to play for the national championship. However, the question will be whether or not those teams have the answer at quarterback. Texas must replace Colt McCoy, but his successor Garrett Gilbert showed promise when he stepped into the national championship game last season and played surprisingly well. Oklahoma must replace Sam Bradford, but will do so with Landry Jones, who played most of the season last year for the Sooners after Bradford went down with an injury against BYU. Nebraska is also high in the preseason rankings, but had real problems last year at the quarterback position, and unless someone in that camp got much better over the off-season, will likely encounter those problems again. With all this being said, it could be a rollercoaster ride in the Big 12 this season. However, the conference has been on a rollercoaster ride for the last four months, so that isn't saying much.
Team(s) With the Best Shot at a National Championship Bid
Nebraska
Even without defensive standout Ndamukong Suh, the Cornhusker defense should be strong under Bo Pelini. However, you can't always have the defense bail you out. Nebraska should easily win the Big 12 North, but if they want to be serious contenders for the national title, then they will need better play on offense, especially at quarterback. If Nebraska drops a game they shouldn't this season, the blame will likely be put on the offense. The bottom line is, if they have good quarterback play, then they are a national title caliber team. If they don't have it, then they aren't.
Texas
I think I'm more obligated out of recent success than anything to include Texas in this list. Not only do they lose Colt McCoy, but they also lose wide receiver Jordan Shipley, as well as some key proponents on the defensive side. Texas will probably drop a few games due to the inexperience of Gilbert and Co., but you never know. Mack Brown knows how to coach young players into confident leaders quickly, so I'll keep them on this list just in case.
Watch Out! (Team That Could Surprise)
Oklahoma
Yes, I think that Oklahoma will be the team out of the Big 12 that could surprise people. I don't know if people are giving enough credit to Landry Jones, who is a good quarterback. Oklahoma is flying under the radar somewhat, which may sound kind of weird, considering they're a preseason Top 10 team. After an 8-5 season, people seem to forget that they have possibly the best team in the Big 12, with an experienced quarterback. Don't be surprised if they win the Big 12 South and are still in the national title conversation heading into the Big 12 championship game.
Out-Of-Conference Game To Watch
Oklahoma vs. Florida State (September 11th)
This game features two teams that I picked to "surprise people" this year. If Florida State has a better defense than they did last year, then this game may surprise people as well. It's still early enough in the season that Florida State could rattle Landry Jones, who although talented, is still only a sophomore. A win for Florida State would definitely catch the nation's attention, and a win for Oklahoma is solid as well.
In-Conference Game To Watch
Nebraska vs. Texas (October 16th)
Oklahoma is not on the schedule for Nebraska, so this game is no doubt the biggest of the year for them. As for Texas, this game could be a chance to either prove they're for real, or to take out their frustrations if they happen to lose to Oklahoma, whom they play the week before. In addition, this game is a chance for the quarterbacks to have a breakout performance in front of a national audience. A lot should be at stake in this final meeting as Big 12 rivals.
Conference Predictions
North Division
1. Nebraska (11-1, [7-1])
2. Colorado (6-6, [4-4])
3. Iowa State (5-7, [3-5])
4. Missouri (7-5, [3-5])
5. Kansas (3-9, [1-7])
6. Kansas State (2-10, [0-8])
South Division
1. Oklahoma (11-1, [7-1])
2. Texas A&M (9-3, [5-3])
3. Texas (9-3, [5-3])
4. Texas Tech (8-4, [4-4])
5. Baylor (6-6, [3-5])
6. Oklahoma State (6-6, [2-6])
Championship Game (Nebraska vs. Oklahoma)
Winner: Nebraska
- K. Becks
The Big 12 should be a very interesting conference to watch this year. They were the talk of the off-season, with Colorado and Nebraska going public with their intentions to bolt for the Pac-10 and Big 10 conferences next year, and that's just the beginning. Multiple teams, including Nebraska, Texas, and Oklahoma, will start the season with high hopes of going undefeated and possibly receiving a bid to play for the national championship. However, the question will be whether or not those teams have the answer at quarterback. Texas must replace Colt McCoy, but his successor Garrett Gilbert showed promise when he stepped into the national championship game last season and played surprisingly well. Oklahoma must replace Sam Bradford, but will do so with Landry Jones, who played most of the season last year for the Sooners after Bradford went down with an injury against BYU. Nebraska is also high in the preseason rankings, but had real problems last year at the quarterback position, and unless someone in that camp got much better over the off-season, will likely encounter those problems again. With all this being said, it could be a rollercoaster ride in the Big 12 this season. However, the conference has been on a rollercoaster ride for the last four months, so that isn't saying much.
Team(s) With the Best Shot at a National Championship Bid
Nebraska
Even without defensive standout Ndamukong Suh, the Cornhusker defense should be strong under Bo Pelini. However, you can't always have the defense bail you out. Nebraska should easily win the Big 12 North, but if they want to be serious contenders for the national title, then they will need better play on offense, especially at quarterback. If Nebraska drops a game they shouldn't this season, the blame will likely be put on the offense. The bottom line is, if they have good quarterback play, then they are a national title caliber team. If they don't have it, then they aren't.
Texas
I think I'm more obligated out of recent success than anything to include Texas in this list. Not only do they lose Colt McCoy, but they also lose wide receiver Jordan Shipley, as well as some key proponents on the defensive side. Texas will probably drop a few games due to the inexperience of Gilbert and Co., but you never know. Mack Brown knows how to coach young players into confident leaders quickly, so I'll keep them on this list just in case.
Watch Out! (Team That Could Surprise)
Oklahoma
Yes, I think that Oklahoma will be the team out of the Big 12 that could surprise people. I don't know if people are giving enough credit to Landry Jones, who is a good quarterback. Oklahoma is flying under the radar somewhat, which may sound kind of weird, considering they're a preseason Top 10 team. After an 8-5 season, people seem to forget that they have possibly the best team in the Big 12, with an experienced quarterback. Don't be surprised if they win the Big 12 South and are still in the national title conversation heading into the Big 12 championship game.
Out-Of-Conference Game To Watch
Oklahoma vs. Florida State (September 11th)
This game features two teams that I picked to "surprise people" this year. If Florida State has a better defense than they did last year, then this game may surprise people as well. It's still early enough in the season that Florida State could rattle Landry Jones, who although talented, is still only a sophomore. A win for Florida State would definitely catch the nation's attention, and a win for Oklahoma is solid as well.
In-Conference Game To Watch
Nebraska vs. Texas (October 16th)
Oklahoma is not on the schedule for Nebraska, so this game is no doubt the biggest of the year for them. As for Texas, this game could be a chance to either prove they're for real, or to take out their frustrations if they happen to lose to Oklahoma, whom they play the week before. In addition, this game is a chance for the quarterbacks to have a breakout performance in front of a national audience. A lot should be at stake in this final meeting as Big 12 rivals.
Conference Predictions
North Division
1. Nebraska (11-1, [7-1])
2. Colorado (6-6, [4-4])
3. Iowa State (5-7, [3-5])
4. Missouri (7-5, [3-5])
5. Kansas (3-9, [1-7])
6. Kansas State (2-10, [0-8])
South Division
1. Oklahoma (11-1, [7-1])
2. Texas A&M (9-3, [5-3])
3. Texas (9-3, [5-3])
4. Texas Tech (8-4, [4-4])
5. Baylor (6-6, [3-5])
6. Oklahoma State (6-6, [2-6])
Championship Game (Nebraska vs. Oklahoma)
Winner: Nebraska
- K. Becks
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