NCAAF Week 8 Weekend Preview

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately, depending on how you look at it) I don't really have the kind of time to break down the "5 Games to Pay Attention To" like I have been the past few weeks. Instead, the analysis will more closely resemble that of the "5 More to Flip To" section. Who am I kidding? About three people on average read this blog anyway, and I went 0-5 in picking games last weekend. If anything, I shouldn't be allowed to have an extended analysis on games, because Cam Newton keeps making them look bad. All right, here we go.

5 Games to Pay Attention To

#8 Michigan State at Northwestern (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

Each game gets harder to win when you're undefeated this late into the season. Northwestern can be a tricky team to play, especially at home. Also, this is the first time this season that the Spartans will be playing outside of the state of Michigan. Michigan State has one of the better offensive attacks in the Big Ten this season (with 447.6 yards per game), which should be to their advantage. Northwestern hasn't exactly been shutting down opposing teams' offenses this season. At the end of the day, the Spartans should be one step closer to their goal of a Big Ten Championship and possibly more.

My Pick: 35-21 Michigan State


#10 Wisconsin at #13 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

Ohio State fans can blame the special teams, the offensive line, or just Terrelle Pryor, but the real reason that the Buckeyes lost last weekend in Madison isn't even on the field. What is the problem then, you ask? The problem is defensive coordinator Jim Heacock. How many times will you insist on playing teams with equally or close to equally talented players straight up, Jim? With this being said, Iowa should be able to see what Michigan State saw when they were able to upset the Badgers; stop the run, and you will be in good shape. The Buckeyes couldn't do it, but should have been able to. The Hawkeyes can and will, and that will be the difference in the game.

My Pick: 28-17 Iowa


#14 Nebraska at #17 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

Nebraska may have been exposed last weekend, but let's not forget that the Texas team they played is no pushover. The Longhorns came out with an intensity that the Cornhuskers couldn't match, and the early lead that Texas got out to ended up being the difference. I find it hard to believe that Nebraska will be caught off guard in consecutive weeks. Also, let's remember that while Oklahoma State is undefeated, they could very well have lost to Texas A&M earlier in the season, and were basically handed the win late in the fourth quarter. Unless Nebraska is a real pretender (kind of contradictory, right?), I see them spoiling the party in Stillwater tomorrow.

My Pick: 31-21 Nebraska


#6 LSU at #5 Auburn (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

Who would have guessed that these would be the two highest ranked SEC teams at this point in the season? Not me, that's for sure. I've been saying for weeks that Auburn quarterback Cam Newton is a "poor man's Terrelle Pryor", and he keeps making me sound like a fool. Granted, I still don't have total confidence in Newton's throwing ability, but he hasn't really been forced to rely on his arm so far. Also, calling anyone a "poor man's Terrelle Pryor" is a total slam after Pryor's performance last weekend in Madison. For the first time this season, I actually think that Auburn can win a game featured on my "5 Games to Pay Attention To" list. Auburn's suspect pass defense shouldn't really hurt them, since LSU doesn't have much of a passing game. On the offensive side, Newton should once again look like a hero in leading Auburn to yet another big win. Sorry Auburn fans, for disrespecting you like that for all those weeks.

My Pick: 35-24 Auburn


#3 Oklahoma at #18 Missouri (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

So, if you want to get technical, the answer to "will the number one team in the nation go down for a third consecutive week?" has already been answered. Oregon is number one in the AP and coaches poll, and those are the only polls we had until Monday of this week. Since Oregon obliterated UCLA last night, the answer would be no. If you want to call Oklahoma number one since they are at the top of the BCS rankings, fine. The answer to the original question is still no. Other than Texas A&M (and Illinois, if you really want to stretch it), Missouri doesn't really have any marquee wins this season. So their conference best 10.8 points per game given up must be noted with that in mind. Oklahoma, on the other hand, while not looking great against less than stellar opponents Cincinnati and Utah State, has wins over Florida State, Air Force, and Texas. While this has the potential to be an interesting game, I don't expect a shocker here.

My Pick: 38-24 Oklahoma


5 More to Flip To

Notre Dame at Navy (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

Notre Dame fans no longer consider the Navy game a give-me. For good reason; I think that Navy has the upper hand in this one.

Rutgers at Pittsburgh (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

The team that wins this game should be the team with the best shot at challenging West Virginia for the Big East Championship.

Purdue at #11 Ohio State (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

The Boilermakers do lead the Big Ten right now. However, like Nebraska, I doubt that the Buckeyes will be caught off guard in consecutive weeks...

North Carolina at #25 Miami (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)

Now that the dust has begun to settle after the fiasco at North Carolina earlier this season, they still find themselves with a chance at making it to the ACC title game. This game is crucial for both teams' chances to make it to Charlotte in December.

Air Force at #4 TCU (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

Other than the TCU vs. Utah showdown at the end of the season, this is the next best game in the Mountain West Conference.


Storylines for the Weekend

The Cat or the Hat?

The SEC is pretty much relying on one of three scenarios in order to get a team into the National Championship game; either Auburn or LSU runs the table, or enough teams lose so that a one loss team (presumably Alabama, considering their current ranking) can sneak in. This weekend will likely narrow it down to two possible scenarios. In possibly the biggest SEC game featuring schools not named Florida or Alabama in two years, Auburn and LSU will square off to try to keep their national title dreams intact. The team that wins will have a tough, but manageable road to Glendale, while the loser will likely be out of the conversation for the remainder of the season.

Will Boise State even try to run up the score?

It is common for teams such as Boise State (or Utah, or Hawaii, or whoever is undefeated in the WAC or Mountain West in any given year) to run up the score against lesser opponents for "style points". That is, to convince the voters that they are a legitimate team worthy of receiving first place votes, if they are high enough in the rankings. However, it has been speculated that Boise has reached the ceiling as far as how high they can climb in the rankings. The voters are very reluctant to vote the Broncos number one, and style points mean nothing when the BCS formula is calculated. With this being said, will Boise continue to try to pick up "style points" by beating their WAC opponents by forty points or more? Or will they throw up the white flag until the Nevada game, where they can potentially gain respect from voters by beating a Wolfpack team who could very well be undefeated as well when the two teams square off November 26th.



- K. Becks

NCAAF Week 4 Weekend Preview

The common belief is that the teams in the SEC are always beating each other up, thus knocking each other out of contention for a national championship. This weekend is the start of the beatings that will likely ensue for the rest of the season in that conference. High profile SEC matchups (Alabama vs. Arkansas and South Carolina vs. Auburn, to name a couple) will result in at least two of the SEC's seven currently undefeated teams to suffer their first loss of the season. At least one Top 15 team will go down. Thanks to the top teams in the conference beating on each other this weekend, there will likely be a major shakeup in the rankings come Sunday. They branded two weekends ago Monster Saturday, but this weekend could be as monstrous as any in the SEC. After tomorrow, we will have a much clearer picture of who are the contenders and who are the pretenders down South.

Top 5 Games to Pay Attention to This Weekend

#1 Alabama at #10 Arkansas (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)

Last year, the Alabama defense shut down Ryan Mallett on their way to a 35-7 drubbing. This year the Razorbacks should be in a much better position to challenge the Tide. For Arkansas, it all starts with the turnaround on defense. A team that ranked last in total yards per game given up last year now ranks second in the SEC, behind only Alabama. Alabama is still very strong on defense, which should make it hard for Ryan Mallett to do a whole lot more than he was able to last year. If the defense for Arkansas is as improved on defense as the statistics suggest, they should keep this game close enough for Mallett to give them a shot at winning.

My Pick: 27-17 Alabama


#12 South Carolina at #12 Auburn (Saturday, 7:45 PM ET)

I was pretty sure that Clemson was going to be able to knock off Auburn last weekend, and if it hadn't been for Clemson quarterback Kyle Parker being injured the entire second half, they may have won that game. That is why am very confident that South Carolina will be able to do what their rivals could not last Saturday night. I don't think it was Clemson's defense that lost them the game. They just couldn't find a way to score points in the second half when they needed to. South Carolina has the tendency to have the same problem, but I believe that they won't even need to score that much in order to beat the Tigers.

My Pick: 24-13 South Carolina


#24 Oregon State at #3 Boise State (Saturday, 8 PM ET

Oregon State was able to keep the game against TCU close thanks to a couple of interceptions thrown by Andy Dalton. If the Beavers want to upset the number three team in the nation, they are going to have to force turnovers yet again. Boise's Kellen Moore was able to lead Boise over Virginia Tech thanks in part to the fact that he took good care of the football. If he is able to do that again, then the talent on the Broncos roster will probably be the difference in this game. Oregon State has gone as far as to practice on a blue field this week in preparation for the Smurf Turf, so if that doesn't say anything about the impact of playing in Boise for opposing teams, I don't know what does.

My Pick: 44-28 Boise State


#22 West Virginia at #15 LSU (Saturday, 9 PM ET)

Although they are 3-0, LSU doesn't really look like one of the best teams in the SEC this season. Even though they average over 28 points per game scoring, their passing game hasn't been all that productive. West Virginia, on the other hand, has had a surprisingly good passing game so far. This game will likely be a battle between LSU's defense (which has been solid) and West Virginia's offense, in particular the passing game. If this game were in Morgantown, I may go the other way with my pick. However, at home, LSU is going to need a collapse similar to the one they had against North Carolina in the second half in order to lose this game.

My Pick: 30-17 LSU


#5 Oregon at Arizona State (Saturday, 10:30 PM ET)

Arizona State did a nice job in Madison last weekend, coming within a blocked extra point of overtime with Wisconsin. This weekend the Sun Devils face an entirely different offensive attack. Oregon has been putting the pedal to the metal offensively in all three of their games this season, scoring an average of sixty-three points per game. It would be one of the shockers of the entire season if the Sun Devils were able to beat Oregon, and I'm not saying that it's going to happen. Just keep an eye on this game if Arizona State is still hanging around in the second half.

My Pick: Oregon 44-17


5 More to Flip To

#16 Stanford at Notre Dame (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)

I think Charlie Weis could have started 1-3 with this schedule too...

Temple at #23 Penn State (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)

Temple looks to be the class of the MAC. They have the capability of making this one interesting.

UCLA at #7 Texas (Saturday, 3:30 PM ET)

UCLA handled a Texas team last week. Can they make it two in a row?

Kentucky at #9 Florida (Saturday, 7 PM ET)

If this game wasn't being played at The Swamp, I would give Kentucky a much better chance of winning this game. Still, I think they at least have as much of a chance as Tennessee did last week.

California at #14 Arizona (Saturday, 10 PM ET)

The Pac-10 is weird. Arizona looked great last weekend, and Cal looked terrible. It could be the exact opposite this weekend, and I wouldn't even be all that surprised.


Storylines for the Weekend

North Carolina is cooked

Oh, how the tables have turned on the Tar Heels. Three weeks ago, they were getting ready for a game with the LSU Tigers, hoping that a win would be a proving point that they were one of the better teams in college football this season. Now, thanks to multiple suspensions handed out by the NCAA, the Tar Heels may just want to make it a goal to finish with a winning season. If North Carolina loses this weekend at Rutgers (which I believe they will), they will have a hard time not thinking of the 2010 campaign as a lost season. This is a sad but good example of what can happen when players receive improper benefits and are caught.

The Heisman race will begin to take shape

Right now, the Heisman bubble is still very fluid. After this weekend, we should have a better sense of who is really competing for college football's top individual prize. Ryan Mallett and Mark Ingram face off, which will undoubtedly result in one gaining a leg up on the other. Kellen Moore will get his second (and possibly last) shot to perform in front of a national audience to make his case as a Heisman contender. Terrelle Pryor has a chance to pad his stats against an Eastern Michigan team that is just plain bad. We're still weeks away from really knowing who is fighting for the bronze bust, but the conversation is becoming more relevant.



- K. Becks

NCAAF: SEC Preview

The college football preview is underway again, after a little weekend break. For those of you that were waiting for the next preview to be on Monday (I said in my Thursday post that Monday would be the next day that I did a preview post), sorry for the delay. However, I did a post about my weekend at the Mid Ohio Sports Car Course in Lexington, Ohio, and I would really appreciate it if you gave that a read as well. It's the post right under this one, if you're wondering.

Overview

Arguments aside, the SEC has been more or less the conference to beat throughout the past decade. The conference has had five BCS national championships, twelve BCS bowl game wins, and the best winning percentage in BCS bowl games during that time span. This year, the debate over which conference is the strongest will re-surface, and this time people may not be blowing hot air. The Southeastern Conference has the reigning National Champions in Alabama, who also boast the reigning Heisman winner in tailback Mark Ingram. However, conferences such as the Big 10 may have closed the gap that has seemed to separate the SEC from the rest of the pack throughout the last ten years. Like always, this year's Southeastern Conference will have powerhouse teams, All-American players, and primetime matchups. Only time will tell if anyone else can keep up with them.

Team(s) With the Best Shot at a National Championship Bid
Alabama

No surprise here. The best team with the best player from last year is probably a favorite to make it back to the national title game yet again. Quite honestly, the only team that can beat the Alabama Crimson Tide this year is the Alabama Crimson Tide. They have a potential trap game versus Penn State early in the year, and as always Florida and LSU (who the Tide have to play at Death Valley) will not be give-me games. However, with almost all of the essential pieces from last year's title winning team returning on offense and a promising defense, only a lapse in concentration or poor execution can bring the Tide down.

Florida

I'm not completely sold on the Gators, but you can't really ever count out an Urban Meyer coached team these days. Obviously, the biggest hole that the Gators will have to fill is the one left by quarterback Tim Tebow. Although John Brantley is touted as a great replacement, he will have to fill the shoes of Tebow rather quickly, as the Gators have to travel to Knoxville to face Tennessee on September 18th. I'll be surprised if Florida remains undefeated by the middle of October, but you never know.

Watch Out! (Team That Could Surprise)
Georgia

They may not look all that impressive the first few weeks of the season as redshirt freshman quarterback Aaron Murray adjusts during his first few games, but the good news is that he doesn't have to go up against any extremely tough defenses in those games. The Bulldogs schedule is favorable (no game against LSU, at home against Arkansas, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech), and the defense should be much better than last year. After several years of disappointment, this could be the year that Georgia finally exceeds expectations.

Out-Of-Conference Game To Watch
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (October 9th)

There aren't really any national title implications here, but the star power is definitely there. Ryan Mallet (Arkansas) and Jerrod Johnson (Texas A&M) are two of the best quarterbacks in college football, and both could be strong Heisman candidates by the end of the season. Both of these gunslingers should have a field day against questionable defenses, so the game should be a fun one to watch from an offensive standpoint. This game could end up being one, big highlight reel.

In-Conference Game To Watch
Alabama vs. Florida (October 2nd)

Chances are, both of these teams will be undefeated and probably in the Top 5 when this game is played. Might this be only Part I of II in the Alabama/Florida saga of 2010? Although one team's national title hopes will take a serious hit after the conclusion of this game, the SEC title game may be a chance for the loser to exact their revenge.

Conference Predictions

East Division

1. Florida (11-1, [7-1])
2. Georgia (10-2, [6-2])
3. Tennessee (7-5, [4-4])
4. South Carolina (6-6, [3-5])
5. Kentucky (6-6, [3-5])
6. Vanderbilt (1-11, [0-8])

West Division

1. Alabama (12-0, [8-0])
2. Arkansas (10-2, [6-2])
3. LSU (9-3, [5-3])
4. Auburn (6-6, [3-5])
5. Mississippi (5-7, [2-6])
6. Mississippi State (2-10, [0-8])

Championship Game (Alabama vs. Florida)
Winner: Alabama


Considering that most of my readers are from the Midwest, you'll be happy to know that the next college football preview is the Big Ten Conference.



- K. Becks