NCAAF Week 8 Weekend Preview

Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately, depending on how you look at it) I don't really have the kind of time to break down the "5 Games to Pay Attention To" like I have been the past few weeks. Instead, the analysis will more closely resemble that of the "5 More to Flip To" section. Who am I kidding? About three people on average read this blog anyway, and I went 0-5 in picking games last weekend. If anything, I shouldn't be allowed to have an extended analysis on games, because Cam Newton keeps making them look bad. All right, here we go.

5 Games to Pay Attention To

#8 Michigan State at Northwestern (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

Each game gets harder to win when you're undefeated this late into the season. Northwestern can be a tricky team to play, especially at home. Also, this is the first time this season that the Spartans will be playing outside of the state of Michigan. Michigan State has one of the better offensive attacks in the Big Ten this season (with 447.6 yards per game), which should be to their advantage. Northwestern hasn't exactly been shutting down opposing teams' offenses this season. At the end of the day, the Spartans should be one step closer to their goal of a Big Ten Championship and possibly more.

My Pick: 35-21 Michigan State


#10 Wisconsin at #13 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

Ohio State fans can blame the special teams, the offensive line, or just Terrelle Pryor, but the real reason that the Buckeyes lost last weekend in Madison isn't even on the field. What is the problem then, you ask? The problem is defensive coordinator Jim Heacock. How many times will you insist on playing teams with equally or close to equally talented players straight up, Jim? With this being said, Iowa should be able to see what Michigan State saw when they were able to upset the Badgers; stop the run, and you will be in good shape. The Buckeyes couldn't do it, but should have been able to. The Hawkeyes can and will, and that will be the difference in the game.

My Pick: 28-17 Iowa


#14 Nebraska at #17 Oklahoma State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

Nebraska may have been exposed last weekend, but let's not forget that the Texas team they played is no pushover. The Longhorns came out with an intensity that the Cornhuskers couldn't match, and the early lead that Texas got out to ended up being the difference. I find it hard to believe that Nebraska will be caught off guard in consecutive weeks. Also, let's remember that while Oklahoma State is undefeated, they could very well have lost to Texas A&M earlier in the season, and were basically handed the win late in the fourth quarter. Unless Nebraska is a real pretender (kind of contradictory, right?), I see them spoiling the party in Stillwater tomorrow.

My Pick: 31-21 Nebraska


#6 LSU at #5 Auburn (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

Who would have guessed that these would be the two highest ranked SEC teams at this point in the season? Not me, that's for sure. I've been saying for weeks that Auburn quarterback Cam Newton is a "poor man's Terrelle Pryor", and he keeps making me sound like a fool. Granted, I still don't have total confidence in Newton's throwing ability, but he hasn't really been forced to rely on his arm so far. Also, calling anyone a "poor man's Terrelle Pryor" is a total slam after Pryor's performance last weekend in Madison. For the first time this season, I actually think that Auburn can win a game featured on my "5 Games to Pay Attention To" list. Auburn's suspect pass defense shouldn't really hurt them, since LSU doesn't have much of a passing game. On the offensive side, Newton should once again look like a hero in leading Auburn to yet another big win. Sorry Auburn fans, for disrespecting you like that for all those weeks.

My Pick: 35-24 Auburn


#3 Oklahoma at #18 Missouri (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

So, if you want to get technical, the answer to "will the number one team in the nation go down for a third consecutive week?" has already been answered. Oregon is number one in the AP and coaches poll, and those are the only polls we had until Monday of this week. Since Oregon obliterated UCLA last night, the answer would be no. If you want to call Oklahoma number one since they are at the top of the BCS rankings, fine. The answer to the original question is still no. Other than Texas A&M (and Illinois, if you really want to stretch it), Missouri doesn't really have any marquee wins this season. So their conference best 10.8 points per game given up must be noted with that in mind. Oklahoma, on the other hand, while not looking great against less than stellar opponents Cincinnati and Utah State, has wins over Florida State, Air Force, and Texas. While this has the potential to be an interesting game, I don't expect a shocker here.

My Pick: 38-24 Oklahoma


5 More to Flip To

Notre Dame at Navy (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

Notre Dame fans no longer consider the Navy game a give-me. For good reason; I think that Navy has the upper hand in this one.

Rutgers at Pittsburgh (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

The team that wins this game should be the team with the best shot at challenging West Virginia for the Big East Championship.

Purdue at #11 Ohio State (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

The Boilermakers do lead the Big Ten right now. However, like Nebraska, I doubt that the Buckeyes will be caught off guard in consecutive weeks...

North Carolina at #25 Miami (Saturday, 7:30 PM EST)

Now that the dust has begun to settle after the fiasco at North Carolina earlier this season, they still find themselves with a chance at making it to the ACC title game. This game is crucial for both teams' chances to make it to Charlotte in December.

Air Force at #4 TCU (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

Other than the TCU vs. Utah showdown at the end of the season, this is the next best game in the Mountain West Conference.


Storylines for the Weekend

The Cat or the Hat?

The SEC is pretty much relying on one of three scenarios in order to get a team into the National Championship game; either Auburn or LSU runs the table, or enough teams lose so that a one loss team (presumably Alabama, considering their current ranking) can sneak in. This weekend will likely narrow it down to two possible scenarios. In possibly the biggest SEC game featuring schools not named Florida or Alabama in two years, Auburn and LSU will square off to try to keep their national title dreams intact. The team that wins will have a tough, but manageable road to Glendale, while the loser will likely be out of the conversation for the remainder of the season.

Will Boise State even try to run up the score?

It is common for teams such as Boise State (or Utah, or Hawaii, or whoever is undefeated in the WAC or Mountain West in any given year) to run up the score against lesser opponents for "style points". That is, to convince the voters that they are a legitimate team worthy of receiving first place votes, if they are high enough in the rankings. However, it has been speculated that Boise has reached the ceiling as far as how high they can climb in the rankings. The voters are very reluctant to vote the Broncos number one, and style points mean nothing when the BCS formula is calculated. With this being said, will Boise continue to try to pick up "style points" by beating their WAC opponents by forty points or more? Or will they throw up the white flag until the Nevada game, where they can potentially gain respect from voters by beating a Wolfpack team who could very well be undefeated as well when the two teams square off November 26th.



- K. Becks

NCAAF: Big Ten Preview

Tiger Woods is struggling, Johnny Cueto is kicking, and Darrelle Revis is still holding out. With all that is going on in the sport-o-sphere, I'm kind of sad that I'm not covering any of it. However, I'm excited to be close enough to the start of college football to be giving my predictions, and I'm especially excited that today I get to cover the Big 10 conference. Just keep holding out Revis, so that I have something to talk about once my preview is completed.

Overview

The Big 10 may finally be ready to challenge the SEC for the title of "Best Conference in College Football". After a promising bowl season last year, in which the Big 10 won four of their seven bowl games and finished with four teams in the Top 15 in the final rankings (the first conference to do that since...the Big Ten, in 1999), 2010 could finally be the year that they gain respect from the media once again. Come early January, all eyes may be on a certain Big Ten team to see whether or not they can compete in yet another national title game, and silence the critics that have screamed "overrated" ever since this certain team's meltdown in the 2007 title game.

Team(s) With the Best Shot at a National Championship Bid
Ohio State

It may not seem like it's been this long, but it's been five years since anyone other than Ohio State has won the Big 10 title. The Buckeyes hope to continue that streak for at least another year, with arguably the best team to be assembled in Columbus since the 2006-2007 season. It is widely believed that Terrelle Pryor is finally ready to lead the Buckeyes, after he showed significant improvement last year and played extremely well in leading the Buckeyes to victory over Oregon in the Rose Bowl. If Pryor really is ready, the Buckeyes have the pieces around him on offense and the usual lockdown defense to make it back to Glendale.

Iowa

Obviously, the Hawkeyes will have to focus on one game at a time, making sure they don't stub their toe against a Northwestern like last season. However, the fact that their season will likely come down to one game, on November 20th versus Ohio State, is common knowledge to just about everyone following college football. In order for that game to have such meaning, they will have to be more efficient on offense than they were last season. Coming from behind makes for great storylines, but it isn't the best way to preserve an undefeated season.

Watch Out! (Team That Could Surprise)
Michigan State

The reason that the Spartans could do well this year is that they return a lot of key starters, and their schedule is pretty favorable. Michigan State gets to play their first five games at home (the game against Florida Atlantic is in Detroit, which is essentially a home game), and they don't have to deal with Ohio State this year. Kirk Cousins is a good, productive quarterback, so if the Spartans can find a running game (which coach Mark Dantonio is known for having), then they could surprise some people.

Out-Of-Conference Game To Watch
Penn State vs. Alabama (September 11th)

I really think that Penn State could be trouble for Alabama. With Penn State having to replace so many starters on both offense and defense, this could be a team that comes out of nowhere. Of course, Penn State may end up being totally befuddled by Alabama, making this game one not to watch. However, I'm going to say that the Nittany Lions will still be pushing Alabama by the fourth quarter in this one.

In-Conference Game To Watch
Ohio State vs. Iowa (November 20th)

Chances are, this game will probably decide who wins the Big 10 title. However, this game could have much bigger implications as well. If both teams manage to stay perfect up to this point in the season, the winner could be headed to Glendale in January. Clock management will probably be a factor in this game, just as it was last year.

Conference Predictions

1. Ohio State (12-0, [8-0])
2. Iowa (10-2, [6-2])
3. Wisconsin (10-2, [6-2])
4. Penn State (9-3, [6-2])
5. Michigan State (8-4, [4-4])
6. Northwestern (8-4, [4-4])
7. Purdue (7-5, [4-4])
8. Michigan (5-7, [3-5])
9. Illinois (3-9, [2-6])
10. Minnesota (3-9, [0-8])
11. Indiana (2-10, [0-8])


Next, I'll be taking a half step back and a leap South as I preview the Sun Belt Conference.



- K. Becks