NCAAF Week 14 Weekend Preview

Last Friday was possibly the worst day of the year for me. Well, actually, it was the worst day of the year. Starting with Alabama's complete meltdown against Auburn, and ending with Boise State's similar meltdown against Nevada, I realized that a dream had died. The outside chance that Boise State would meet TCU in the national championship, and thus become a catalyst for the progression of a playoff for college football, dissolved as quickly as Alabama's lead in the second half. While it is unlikely that there will be mass chaos in college football this year, my hope was renewed on Tuesday morning when TCU announced their intentions to leave the Mountain West Conference for the Big East starting in 2012. While this weekend may prove to be nothing more than going through the motions of conference championship games, let it be known that the dream has not completely, and never will, die.

5 Games to Pay Attention To

#1 Oregon at Oregon State (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

Before the beginning of the season when I gave my predictions for every college football team, I predicted that Oregon would end the season at 9-3. While that prediction was obviously off-base, one of the games I felt Oregon would lose was the annual Civil War battle against in-state rival Oregon State. After an entire season of observation of both teams, I no longer feel that is going to be the case. Oregon is only going to be beat by a team that can stop their high octane offense. In some of my previous Weekend Previews, I have felt confident about a few teams' chances against the Ducks (California, Stanford, Arizona, and Arizona State). Those teams have the best defenses in the Pac-10, and were the only teams in that conference, in my opinion, capable of bringing down the Ducks. Unfortunately, Oregon State has a defense that gives up a little over 400 yards per game, and ranks behind all the aforementioned teams in that category. With that being said, the only thing that supporters of chaos in the BCS can hope for is that the intensity of an in-state rivalry will motivate a sub-par Beavers defense to play far better than they have all season. While I'm in that category of fans, I wouldn't hold my breath on that happening.

My Pick: Oregon 49-35


#2 Auburn vs. #18 South Carolina (Saturday, 4 PM EST)

To start, let it be known that is it much tougher to beat a team the second time around. This game may not be as much about South Carolina being able to stop Auburn as it may be about them being able to exploit Auburn's defense. When Auburn has been in trouble this season, it has been because teams have picked on Auburn's weak defensive secondary. Alabama did it with Julio Jones, Georgia did it with A.J. Green, and South Carolina has already done it once this season with Alshon Jeffery. If Gamecocks quarterback Stephen Garcia can hook up with Jeffery early and often, we may see something similar to last Friday to start the game. That will open up the running game, and could put Auburn in a precarious position in the second half. Alabama had the game against Auburn won; they just beat themselves. If South Carolina can start off similarly, it will be up to them not to self-destruct.

My Pick: 37-34 South Carolina


#20 Florida State vs. #12 Virginia Tech (Saturday, 7:45 PM EST)

Talk about a game featuring a couple of programs that have turned it around. Jimbo Fisher, in just his first season as head coach of Florida State, has led the Seminoles back to where fans in Tallahassee feel they should be every year. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has quietly reeled off ten straight wins since dropping their first two games of the year, which included a loss against FCS opponent James Madison. While this game has no implications other than a trip to the Orange Bowl, it is still an interesting matchup. Virginia Tech is still a team that relies heavily on the run, even though quarterback Tyrod Taylor is a duel threat that can beat you through the air. Florida State's chances of success will likely hinge on how senior quarterback and leader Christian Ponder plays. He has the ability to play like an All-American, but is unpredictable. If we get to see Ponder at his best, then this will be a great game.

My Pick: 28-20 Virginia Tech


#13 Nebraska vs. #10 Oklahoma (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

Like the ACC championship game, this matchup has no real implications other than a trip to a BCS bowl for the winner. For Nebraska, it would be a storybook ending to their time in the Big 12; a win against rival Oklahoma that would give them their first overall Big 12 title since 1999, just as they head off for the Big Ten next season. For Oklahoma, this game could be somewhat of a redemption game. After reaching number one in the BCS rankings late in October, the Sooners promptly fell from the top spot after a loss to Missouri. Then, Oklahoma was largely forgotten after a loss against Texas A&M two weeks later left them in danger of not even qualifying to play for the Big 12 Championship. If Oklahoma can get a win against the Cornhuskers, some of the sentiment that they are inconsistent against quality teams this season could go away. Nebraska, on the other hand, would like to prove that they do in fact bring an offense with them to games against quality opponents. Expect this to be a close one.

My Pick: 31-27 Nebraska


Connecticut at South Florida (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

You may be wondering why this is a top five game to pay attention to this weekend. Well, believe it or not, one of these teams is playing for an outright Big East crown. If Connecticut can win this weekend against the Bulls, they will be the Big East champions. At 7-4. With an automatic bid to a BCS bowl. While Michigan State, at number seven and 11-1, will likely not play in a BCS bowl. As unfair as it may seem, it isn't a sure thing that UConn will even win this game. South Florida has been competitive in all but one game this season, and even made their case as arguably the third best team in Florida by beating Miami last weekend. If the Bulls do happen to beat the Huskies, then they have the slim chance of being tied atop the Big East standings with four other teams. And you thought the BCS formula was a mess...

My Pick: 28-24 Connecticut


5 More to Flip To

#24 Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) (Friday, 7 PM EST)

The RedHawks have been the turnaround story of the season, after going 1-11 in 2009. Northern Illinois isn't your average MAC team, though...

SMU vs. UCF (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

See what kind of looks people give you if you tell them you're going to watch the SMU vs. UCF game. Seriously, try it...

Utah State at #9 Boise State (Saturday, 3 PM EST)

You thought Wisconsin ran up the score? I wouldn't want to be the team that has to play Boise State after the loss they endured last Friday.

Washington at Washington State (Saturday, 7 PM EST)

The Huskies can become bowl eligible for the first time in Jake Locker's career if they can beat rival Washington State for the Apple Cup. That would make a whopping four Pac-10 teams bowl eligible.

USC vs. UCLA (Saturday, 10:30 PM EST)

I honestly just ran out of games I thought were interesting.


Storylines for the Weekend

The Cam Newton Rule

The general feeling from people associated with college football is that the ruling on Cam Newton's eligibility sets a bad precedent. Assuming that college football does not realize this would be ignorant. If the NCAA were to rule Newton ineligible, then you can bet that there would be lawsuits filed by both the Newton family and the University of Auburn. Rather than deal with that mess, the NCAA just decided that it would be better to let Newton play, then institute a rule (which we'll dub "Cam's Rule" for now) that prevents such actions from occurring in the future. So, to all you fathers out there making calls to your "agent buddy" to discuss how much your son is worth this very moment, sorry. It's not going to be allowed next season.

My Conference Re-Alignment Predictions, Part II

My prediction as to what the college football landscape will look like in the near future in order to accommodate a playoff will be posted soon. Check back tomorrow, as I will hopefully have it posted by then. If you haven't seen my original prediction, you can read it here. However, be warned that my original predictions are pretty off-base with TCU's recent announcement to join the Big East.



- K. Becks

NCAAF Week 12 Weekend Preview

Since Oregon, Auburn, and TCU don't play this weekend, and Boise State just got done wrapping up another easy victory over Fresno State, there is very little that could potentially send a shockwave through the world of college football this weekend. In other words, if there was a weekend to step away from the action and do something other than watch college football on a Saturday, this would be it. Of course, true fans don't do that, right? Here are five games that should be interesting, even if they don't have that much bearing on the national title.

5 Games to Pay Attention To

Pittsburgh at South Florida (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

Does the Big East really deserve an automatic bid to a BCS bowl? It is a very realistic possibility that the Big East representative in a BCS bowl game could have four or more losses. In fact, no one in the Big East has less than three losses, and Pittsburgh, the current leader, is 5-4. As much as it seems like Pitt has stumbled through their entire season, they have actually done relatively well in conference play. Other than a loss at Connecticut last Friday, the Panthers have rolled through their conference schedule. South Florida has been playing well as of late, too. After failing to score in the double-digits in two straight games (losing both), the Bulls have reeled off three straight wins. It's really going to come down to which team shows up for both squads. Both have shown the ability to play well, but both have also had instances of looking completely flat in losses.

My Pick: 28-20 Pittsburgh


#14 Virginia Tech at #24 Miami (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

Both of these teams had national title aspirations at the beginning of the season. Although that is gone, they both have a considerable amount to play for. Virginia Tech, after dropping their opener against Boise State and then being embarrassed the next week against FCS opponent James Madison, has been on a tear, going undefeated since that point. Miami, who has had an up and down season and has experienced some issues at quarterback, are still in the hunt for the ACC Coastal Division title. The Hurricanes would have to beat Virginia Tech and then hope that the Hokies drop another one against Virginia in order to pull into a tie atop the standings (and thus receive the right to play for the ACC Championship game by way of the tie-breaker), but it isn't completely out of reach. Hurricanes coach Randy Shannon could also feel the heat at the end of the season if the Hurricanes don't pull off a big win.

My Pick: 30-17 Virginia Tech


#8 Ohio State at #21 Iowa (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

The Buckeyes have beaten Iowa in eleven of the last twelve meetings between the two teams, but this may be the most difficult game yet for Coach Tressel. Iowa is coming off of a loss against Northwestern, a game in which they should have won. Although their record is only 7-3, the Hawkeyes pummeled a good Michigan State team, came within one point of beating Wisconsin, and has really only looked out of it in one game this entire season, at Arizona back in September. The balanced Hawkeye offensive attack could be a handful for the Buckeye defense, which had trouble against Wisconsin's heavy running attack. This game will probably end up coming down to two things; one, how motivated is Iowa? Two, will the Buckeyes make the necessary adjustments to stop Iowa's balanced offensive attack, or will they get behind early and not be able to make up the difference in the second half?

My Pick: 28-24 Iowa


#16 Oklahoma at Baylor (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

For some reason, I seem to have taken a liking to Baylor. Oklahoma has looked inconsistent at times this year, which is why I am giving the Bears a chance in this one. With that being said, Baylor has also had their moments of inconsistency this season. This is a battle for third place in the Big 12 South, and the winner could potentially finish second in the South if Texas A&M loses their final two games. Baylor will need to find a way to stop Oklahoma's offense, which has the ability to score at will on questionable defenses like Baylor's. However, if Baylor can match the Sooners on the offensive end, then an offensive shootout with plenty of highlight worthy footage should ensue.

My Pick: 48-38 Oklahoma


#9 Nebraska at #18 Texas A&M (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

Texas A&M, after choosing to start quarterback Ryan Tannehill, has apparently taken my advice from the Week 7 Preview and turned their season around. However, they did it without Jerrod Johnson, which surprised me. Like the Oklahoma game two weekends ago, this is a game where Tannehill can continue to make a name for himself with a big performance. It will be a tough task, however. Nebraska has the second best pass defense in the nation, giving up just over 140 yards per game through the air. Aggies running back Cyrus Gray will also have to have a big game in order to open up the passing game if Texas A&M wants to have success on offense. On defense, Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez will be the main focus. I'm sure that the Aggies would love if they had an actual 12th Man on the field, because stopping Martinez with just eleven has been difficult for other teams this season.

My Pick: 35-24 Nebraska


5 More to Flip To

North Carolina State at North Carolina (Saturday, 12 PM EST)

It's a little shocking that NC State is the one battling for an ACC Championship game berth...

#7 Stanford at Cal (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

I predict that Stanford will have far less trouble with Cal than Oregon did last weekend.

Illinois at Northwestern (Saturday, 3:30 PM EST)

Only because it's being played at Wrigley Field. Without Dan Persa, the Wildcats aren't that fun to watch...

Army at Notre Dame (Saturday, 7 PM EST)

This one isn't just on the list because it's being played at Yankee Stadium. I think some Notre Dame fans will be unpleasantly surprised at how much better Army football has gotten when this game is over.

#20 USC at Oregon State (Saturday, 8 PM EST)

Oregon State enters possibly one of the toughest late season stretches of any team in the country. They have the potential to pull off upsets in two of them...



- K. Becks

NCAAF: Big East Preview

There will be no coverage of Brett Favre on Around The Corn Sports Blog in the foreseeable future. I don't hate Favre; it's just that there has been too much coverage from the big time media outlets for me to get a fresh word in edgewise. The fact of the matter is, he will probably come back at some point this season, and this whole saga will be all for not.

Now, the moment you have all been waiting for: the beginning of my 2010 college football preview. I'll begin with the Beast from the East (eh, kind of...), the Big East Conference.

Overview

Of the Power 6 conferences, the Big East is routinely thought of as the weakest link. This year will probably prove to be no different, as the perennial powers in this conference are dealing with an array of challenges including coaching changes, new players at key positions, and difficult schedules. However, in recent years parody has been a frequent visitor to the Big East conference, especially in important games late in the season. This is one of the hardest conferences to predict due to the fact that many of the teams are relatively even, and any of them could emerge as the conference champion. With that being said, it should be a fun conference to watch, even if none of them have a shot at the national championship by the end of the regular season.

Team(s) With the Best Shot at a National Championship Bid
Pittsburgh

This is a real long shot, but we'll be able to tell early on whether or not the Panthers are truly one of the top teams in the nation. They have two tough games in September (at Utah [Sept. 2nd], Miami [Sept. 23rd]) that if nothing else will prepare them for their conference schedule. The problem that I see for Pitt in those two early season matchups is that they will be relying on an inexperienced quarterback to command the offense. Running back Dion Lewis is good, but can't completely carry the Panthers against teams like Utah and Miami. Pitt will likely be the class of the Big East by the end of the season, but won't be ready early on to remain in contention for a National Championship bid. Still, they're the best chance that the Big East has to put a team in the Big Game.

Watch Out! (Team That Could Surprise)
Rutgers

Ever since the Scarlet Knights 2006 breakout season, they have sort of been a middle of the pack team in the Big East. This season they could finally get back to where they thought they were headed after 2006. Granted, they do have to go on the road to face some of the toughest teams in the Big East (at Pitt [10/23], at Cincinnati [11/20], at West Virginia [12/4]), so this prediction could end up being way off. However, Rutgers is one of the few teams in the Big East that has a proven starter at quarterback, and with someone to throw to as well. Quarterback Tom Savage and wide receiver Mohamed Sanu could become a feared tandem not only in the Big East, but in the entire country, which may result in Rutgers having a similar season to the one they had four years ago.

Out-Of-Conference Game To Watch
Pittsburgh vs. Miami (Fla.) (September 23rd)

Both of these teams have a lot of work to do if this is to be a marquee matchup. Pittsburgh has to take care of always tough Utah, and Miami has to pull a huge upset over Ohio State in Columbus. If by chance those two things were to happen, this would definitely be the biggest game of the week, with the winner propelling themselves into the early national title picture. Even if it doesn't shape up to be that monumental, it still should be an entertaining game to watch.

In-Conference Game To Watch
Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia (November 26th)

The Backyard Brawl is always a must-see game, and this one should be no different. There is a good chance that the winner of this game will be the team representing the Big East in a BCS bowl, so this game will be very important to more than just these two teams. It will also be the Battle of the Backs, to see who the better running back in the Big East is; Noel Devine, or Dion Lewis.

Conference Predictions

1. Pittsburgh (9-3, [6-1])
2. West Virginia (9-3, [5-2])
3. Rutgers (8-4, [4-3])
4. Cincinnati (8-4, [4-3])
5. Connecticut (8-4, [3-4])
6. South Florida (5-7, [2-5])
7. Syracuse (4-8, [1-6])
8. Louisville (2-10, [0-7])



- K. Becks